Battered at Como, Back to Business vs Hamburg

Justin Crozer: 00:00:02

4-1 on their debut.

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A club playing its first ever European

night in 119 years of existence.

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And the scoreboard says they hammered us.

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But the truth's a little bit

more complicated than 4-1.

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And I'm going to show you

exactly why in a minute.

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This is a quick fire.

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So we're in, we're honest, and we're out.

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Como on Thursday, Hamburg

at the Arena on Sunday.

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And after two losses on

the spin, everything about

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this club just got heavier.

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Let's go.

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Welcome to RBL Talk, the

independent RB Leipzig podcast.

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Tactics, Terrace, Truth.

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I'm Justin Crozer, and

this is a quick fire.

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The fast midweek turnaround.

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No guest, no full mailbag, just a

rapid reaction while it's still raw.

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Here's the run of the play.

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First, back to Italy, the Como game.

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What actually happened, and the player

watch verdict on the duel we set Monday.

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Then straight into

Sunday, Hamburg at home.

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A new player watch duel

and where I land on a score

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Right, Como 4-1.

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And I wanna be straight with you

because the scoreline and the

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story aren't quite the same thing.

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Here's the bit that'll surprise you.

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On the surface, this was even.

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Possession 50/50.

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Shots 14 apiece.

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We actually had more touches in their

final third than they had in ours.

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On paper, a level game

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So how does a level game finish 4-1?

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Two words, chance quality.

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Their expected goals on the night, 2.3.

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Ours, 1.4.

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Big chances, seven to them, two to us.

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They attacked the middle of the goal.

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We took pot shots from the edges.

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Same amount of ball.

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They made it count, and we didn't.

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That's the whole night in one line.

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Let me give you the three moments.

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15 minutes, Duvicus

slides one across the box.

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We only half clear it, and Batrunia

is just there to poke it in.

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One-nil.

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Then 38, Batrunia again, this time

the pass, releasing Duvicus, who

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holds off Lecaba and finishes low.

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Two-nil at the break.

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And here's the, the thing.

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We still felt it.

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We were in it.

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We weren't getting battered.

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And then the game died in a

single minute of the second half.

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54, Nico Paz slips Dio in behind.

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He drills it far corner, three-nil.

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Game gone.

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We did nick one straight back.

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Maximovic, 58, an absolute rocket into

the top corner, teed up by Nkunku.

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But Pirone rubbed in right

at the death, four-one.

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Now, why did it happen?

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I'll keep this quick because the full

tactical autopsies are for the main show.

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But two things.

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One, their fullbacks flew forward,

and we never handled the width.

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Dio alone won 10 duels and carried

the ball 300 meters, and Baku

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made the error that led to a goal.

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Two, their holding midfielder, Miller,

passed at 95% in our half, untouched.

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When the other team's deepest player

is strolling around in your half

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like that, your press has failed.

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That's the headline.

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What does that actually mean?

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It's one game out of eight in

the league phase, so it is not

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fatal, but it's a rotten start.

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Second season running, we've

lost our Champions League opener,

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and coming right off the word of

defeat, that's back-to-back losses

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and seven conceded in two games.

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The defense needs a long,

hard look in the mirror.

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Now player watch.

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Monday we set the duel.

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Nico Paz against whoever we put in goal.

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And in the end,

Vandervoort kept his place.

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No birthday start for

Niland, no experienced head

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for the big European night.

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The young Belgian got the nod.

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So how did it go?

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Paz won it comprehensively.

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Two assists, and both

of them beat our keeper.

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He teed up Dial for the third

and Perrone for the fourth.

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A 7.9

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rating, and get this, he

was also Como's top tackler.

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He ran the game at both ends.

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That's the complete midfield

performance, and it's exactly why

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he's the one everyone's talking about.

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And Vandervort?

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A 5.4,

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and the number that

jumps out is minus 1.71

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goals prevented.

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So more than a goal and a half worse

than your average keeper would have done.

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But I'll be fair to him.

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The back four handed

Como seven clear chances.

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Perrone's finish alone was worth 0.93

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expected goals.

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That's as good as a certain goal.

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No keeper alive is saving that lot.

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So the duel goes to Paz, and

clearly he beat our last line twice.

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But don't you dare hang four

goals on the goalkeeper.

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Round one, Como.

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Before we cross to the weekend, one

flicker of light in all that, Maksimovic.

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Nineteen years old, a seven point eight,

and that goal of his was the only time all

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night we made their keeper properly sweat.

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The boy is a player.

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Nusa fought too.

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Eight dribbles, ran himself into the

ground trying to drag us up the pitch.

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And Nkunku, he got the assist.

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Three key passes.

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The link play is clearly back, but

still no goal since his return.

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That drought's turning

into a story all on its own

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One to keep an eye on.

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So that's Italy.

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Painful, but not the end of the world.

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Because three days later, we go

again, and Hamburg at home is

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exactly the response this squad needs

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sunday, Red Bull Arena, half three

in the afternoon, Leipzig time.

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Eleven Sunday night for those of us down

here in Australia in the central areas.

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Hamburg come to town, and after Italy,

this is the definition of a must-win.

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Let me paint you the opponent

because honestly, it's bleak.

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Hamburg have made the worst start

in their history, two games,

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zero points, and forget close.

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They've been battered.

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Nil-two at Dortmund, then

nil-five at home to Mainz.

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Five at their own ground on match day two.

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And here's the number that tells

you everything you need to know.

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In two Bundesliga games this

season, Hamburg have scored nothing.

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Zero goals, nought from seven inside

the box, nought from nine outside it.

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They are not scoring full stop.

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So on paper, this should be

routine, and history agrees.

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But own this fixture all time

in the Bundesliga, it's six

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wins, one draw, one defeat.

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We've won the last two on the bounce.

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But, and you knew there'd be a

but, here's the honest version.

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Every one of those recent

wins came by a single goal.

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Two-one, two-one, one-two.

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Lately, we grind Hamburg.

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We don't thrash them.

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Now, stack on where we are

right now, seven conceded in two

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games, a press that isn't biting.

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So the question isn't

whether we're favorites.

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Of course we are.

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The question is, which version

of us actually shows up?

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The old side that used to put this

lot away four-nil or another nervy

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one-goal job that a shaky backline

make it harder than it should be.

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Because here's the good

news, and it's real.

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For all the defensive misery

going forward, we are flying

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going into this weekend.

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We've taken more shots than any team in

the division, and we've got the second

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highest expected goals in the league.

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The chances are there.

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The service is elite.

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There's just one man who hasn't

cashed in yet, Nkunku, still

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without a goal since his return.

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Six attempts and counting.

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And I'll say it plainly, if there

is ever a game to end that drought,

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it's this one, at home against the

leakiest defense in the country.

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Over to you, Chris.

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Now player watch.

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New duel for the week, and I'm

doing this one a little differently.

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For Leipzig, Orsano Drago.

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For Hamburg, Fabio Vieira.

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And I'm not framing this

as how do we shut him down?

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Because these two are

cut from the same cloth.

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They are both sparks, the kind of

player who makes something from nothing.

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A bit of magic that swings

a game his team's way.

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So this isn't a stopper duel.

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It's dead simple.

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Whoever conjures the moment tips it.

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Take Vieira first.

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Last season, he was

Hamburg's creative heartbeat.

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Seven goals, five assists, a 7.2

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rating.

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That's a serious return from a number 10,

and it's exactly why he's the danger man.

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But this season, he's barely featured.

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One game, 45 minutes, and he got hooked at

halftime in that nil five against Mainz.

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So he's elite and doubted

at the very same time.

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A wounded artist trying

to remember who he is.

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Give him a yard, especially at a set

piece, and Hamburg give away enough

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free kicks that there'll be dead balls

flying about, which cuts both ways.

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And he can punish us.

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And Odrago, our 19-year-old on the way up.

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And you got a glimpse in Italy, 30

minutes off the bench where he completed

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and created duels, won recoveries,

an interception, a key pass, a shot,

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combative and creative one package

against a Hamburg side that will

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likely sit in and try to survive.

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A spark like Asane is exactly

the tool to pick the lock.

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Two creators, opposite

ends of their journeys.

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Whoever finds the moment wins

the duel, and maybe the game.

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We settle that one on Monday

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And the score?

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You know the rule around here.

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I don't just lob out a

scoreline for the sake of it.

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I want the numbers to earn it.

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So here's the working.

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We've created the fourth

biggest chances in the league.

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They've conceded at three

and a half a game and haven't

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kept a clean sheet all season.

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That math says we score two, maybe three.

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The only thing giving me

pause is our own defense.

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Seven shipped in the last two,

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And even a side this poor

will fashion the odd chance.

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So I'm going three-one Leipzig.

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We've got far too much firepower

for a team this toothless.

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But until I actually see our

backline keep one out, I'm not

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going to promise you a clean sheet.

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Three-one, response delivered,

and hopefully Nkunku's

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monkey finally off his back

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two takeaways, quick as you like.

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From Italy, it wasn't the

amount of ball, and it wasn't

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the shot count, it was quality.

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They made their big chances

count, and we didn't.

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Sharpen the final ball and the

finishing, and our underlying

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numbers say the goals are coming.

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For Sunday, it's a must-win against

a side that cannot buy a goal.

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The numbers scream home win.

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The only real question is whether

we're finally clinical, and whether

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our back line does the job for once.

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Get that right, and this

is the reset we need.

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Now, over to you.

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This is only a quick-fire, so

the full Digital Terrace Mailbag

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lands on Tuesday's main episode.

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That's where I read your takes properly.

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But I want your calls on Como or Hamburg.

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How do you see the return

to the Champions League?

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Your outlook for Sunday?

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Score?

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finally break his duck?

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Get it to me three ways.

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SpeakPipe, that's speakpipe.com/rbltalk.

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You've got up to five minutes of

audio, and I'll play it on air.

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Drop a comment straight on the episode

over on Spotify, or come and argue with

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us in the Digital Terrace on Discord.

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Links are all in the show notes.

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And while you're down there,

if this show means something

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to you, help us keep it going.

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Subscribe, leave us a review.

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It generally moves the needle.

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We take no corporate money, no sponsors

pulling the strings, no agendas, no

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gatekeepers, just pure Leipzig passion,

funded by the people who listen.

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If you can chip in to help cover the

costs and keep it independent, the

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link's in the show notes as well.

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That's what keep this

feed free and honest.

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Full mailbag and the

Hamburg verdict Tuesday.

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Before then, let's go RBL.

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Tactics Terrace Truth.

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I've been Justin Crozer, and

until next time, bye-bye for now.