Bremen 3-1 RB Leipzig: 71% and Beaten + Como Preview

Justin Crozer: 00:00:02

71% of the ball, 19 shots, 94 times into their

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final third, and we lost by two.

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That's not a typo.

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That's RB Leipzig at the Weserstadion.

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A team that did almost everything except

the one thing that actually counts.

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So today, we're not going

to pretend it didn't hurt.

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We're going to open it right up,

work out exactly where it went

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wrong, and be honest about it,

because that's the deal on this show.

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Then you lot have your say.

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And then Champions League, Italy,

a Como side scoring for fun, and a

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question in our goal nobody saw coming.

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Big one this.

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Let's get into it

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Welcome to RBL Talk, the

independent RB Leipzig podcast.

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Tactics, Terrace, Truth.

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I'm Justin Crozer, and

this is episode 119.

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Here's how the next 20-plus minutes run.

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First, the postmortem.

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Bremen three, Leipzig one, and the

maddening story of how you can dominate

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a football match and still lose it.

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Plus, the player watch

payoff from last time.

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Friedl versus Nkunku.

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How'd it land?

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Then we're straight to the Digital

Terrace, where you have been

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anything but quiet this week.

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The Gio signing, the striker debate,

and one of you reckons the whole

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wheels are already coming off.

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I'll answer all of it.

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And then we look ahead, because this

week, it's the Champions League,

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and we're on the road in Italy.

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Como away.

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Their form, their danger men, a fresh

player watch, and my score prediction.

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No gatekeepers, no

agendas, just the football.

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Let's go.

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Right, let's talk about it,

because we're not the show that

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pretends a bad day didn't happen.

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Werder Bremen three, RB Leipzig

one at the Weserstadion.

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And if you all saw that was the scoreline,

you'd assume we got run off the park.

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But we didn't, and that's

what makes this one sting.

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Here's the strange truth of it.

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We had 71% of the ball, 19 shots

to their 12, 94 entries into their

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final third against just 34 of

ours, 612 accurate passes to 212.

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On paper, this is a Leipzig hammering,

and we came home beaten by two.

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So what happened?

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Three goals, three different wounds.

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Let me walk you through them.

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The fourth minute, Chukwuze slides

Eren Dinkçi in behind, and it's a goal

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before the away ends even sat down.

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A sucker punch and a lot of that

pretty possession you'll hear me quote.

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That's a team a goal down

from minute four, chasing.

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Territory isn't always dominance.

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The 68th, a corner.

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Gruel swings it in.

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Niklas Fullkrug climbs, and

it's the sort of header a proper

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number nine buries in his sleep.

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A set piece switch off from us.

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And the 80th, this one you just applaud.

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Marco Gruel, open play,

pure quality, and it's over.

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Eight point eight, man of the

match, a goal and the assist

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for the second, the single best

player on the pitch by a distance.

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Rydle Baku got one back, ninety

plus five, a header teed up by the

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teenager Maksimovic off the bench.

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And we'll take the reply, but nobody's

pretending it changed the story.

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And here's where I'll

be straight with you.

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An early gift, a dead ball lapse,

a moment of magic, and we obliged

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on all three because the hardest

number of the lot is this one.

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Bremen scored three goals from naught

point eight three expected goals.

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We scored one from one point five six.

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Look at the expected goals on target.

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Bremen, one point five eight.

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Us, naught point eight three.

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Their shots reached a keeper and hurt him.

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Ours got blocked, seven of them,

or dribbled into Karl-Heinz gloves.

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That's not tactics.

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That's ruthlessness against

wastefulness, and it wasn't luck either.

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Team rating seven-seven-seven for them.

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Six-four-six for us.

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Van de Vort's night, goals

prevented minus one point four two.

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He stopped less than an average

keeper stops from what he faced.

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On an afternoon, our defense actually

controlled the ball, Orban headed

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a golden chance wide from a corner.

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The front line had 19 shots and one goal.

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One week after we put three past Gladbach

without sweating, we've been handed a

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proper Bundesliga away day reality check.

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Match day two, and the honeymoon's over.

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So player watch.

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Last time out, we set you a battle.

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Marco Friedl, the Bremen captain,

against Christopher Nkunku, back

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in the starting eleven and out

to remind everyone what he is.

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How'd it land?

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Dead level on the ratings, six point

six each, but completely differently.

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Friedl's night was survival.

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11 clearances, one tackle

attempted, none won.

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Nothing stepped out.

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21 passes, all 21 in his own half.

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A captain with his back to

the wall, heading and hacking

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everything that came, and job done.

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His side kept the middle shut.

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Nkunku, livelier than

the scoreline suggests.

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Four shots, two on target, the most

threat of any Leipzig attacker on the day.

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On his first league start back, 96%

passing, two key passes, forever

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dropping in to knit it together.

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What he didn't get was the one

thing that turns a good display

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into a great one, a goal.

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Hooked on 84 for Maximovic.

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So give this round to the defender.

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Friedl's side won, and his channel

wasn't the one we breached.

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But if you're an RBL fan, you watch

Nkunku's four shots and two key

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passes in his first start and you

think, "The numbers are coming.

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This one's a closer than

a loss makes it feel."

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And that gap between how it felt and

what the numbers say is exactly what you

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lot have been arguing about all week.

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So let's get to it.

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Up next, the Digital Terrace.

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Your takes, my responses.

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Welcome to the Digital Terrace,

the bit where you do the

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talking and I do the answering.

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And funny thing, I just spent the

first part of the show telling you

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Nkunku's first start back was brighter

than the scoreline made it look.

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You lot, not all of you are

convinced, so let's get into it

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First up over on Spotify and

a familiar voice around these

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parts, A-N-D-R-I-U-X-A.C-A-P-A-S.

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Good to have you back

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I'm gonna try and pronounce

it and use it as Endruxia.

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They say, "Love the review, but

what's my honest read on the

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Marc Guiu signing from Chelsea?

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Reckons he could be a serious

reinforcement with the Champions

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League and the cup games stacking up.

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Points out he chipped in with goals

at Chelsea despite limited minutes,

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and he's a La Masia graduate."

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Right, Will Andrews here, your distinct

preview on the weekend, because Gio

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came off the bench on seventy-five.

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Fifteen quiet minutes, a couple

of recoveries, no sight of goal,

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so I'm not going to pretend we

learned much from that cameo.

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Now, I'd like to, to gently

tidy the exact tally.

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From what I can see, it's more like

eight or nine goals contributions at

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Chelsea, and a lot of them in short

cameos, not quite the ten you quoted.

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But honestly, that

makes your point better.

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A young forward returning a goal every

seventy-odd minutes off the bench

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against Premier League competition?

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That's a real return rate.

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The profile's right

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And here's what people

miss about the signing.

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It's not about the starting 11,

it's about the fixture pile.

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Champions League nights, Pot Car

rounds, Saturday, Tuesday, Saturday.

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You can't run one striker into the

ground across three competitions.

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A young, hungry La Messiah

schooled forward, he'll take a

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rotation role and stay sharp.

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That's smart squad building,

not a marquee splash.

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Serious reinforcement or squad depth?

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Ask me in December when he's played a few.

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But the profile's right.

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Good shout.

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Keep them coming.

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And hold that striker thought, because

someone on X wants to talk about exactly

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that, and they are not in a generous mood

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Over to Tiger Styles, who fired in two.

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So I'm taking both.

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Take one.

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We need a ruthless center forward to

replace our lackluster Harder, and

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neither Nkunku nor Gomes is that.

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And he'd rather not mention Romelu

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Okay.

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And look, after the 90 we just watched on

the weekend, I'm not going to sit here and

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tell you you're wrong about the headline.

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19 shots, one goal, 1.56

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expected goals, one on the board.

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We did not have a killer

in that box on the weekend.

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And that's the story of the defeat.

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So the instinct, we're crying

out for a stone-cold finisher.

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The data's on your side.

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Where I'll push back.

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Nkunku isn't your centre forward.

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Never has been.

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He's the second striker, the

creator between the lines.

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And in his first start back, four

shots, two on target, two key passes.

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That's not the problem.

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That's a man building sharpness.

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And Gomez is a teenager who

got a quarter of an hour.

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Judging either as your number

nine is the wrong lens.

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But your real point, do

we have a ruthless one?

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On Saturday?

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No.

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And maybe, maybe, Indruksi's answer and

your complaint are the same conversation.

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Indru is part of the fix.

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We'll see.

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On Romulu?

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Let the emoji speak for

itself and keep the peace.

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The emoji used was the melting face

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Which brings me to Tiger Styles II.

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And this is the big swing.

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They say, we're not making top four.

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We'll lay another egg

in the Champions League.

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Demichelis is the Argentine

version of Marco Rose.

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And the Nkunku signing looks more

like filling a spot than a plan.

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Right.

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Deep breath

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I won't pretend that after a

three-one at the Weserstadion,

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that take hasn't got a pulse.

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But let me be Tactics Terrace

truth honest with you.

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It's match day two.

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Seven days ago, we put three

past Gladbach without sweating,

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and everyone was dreaming.

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On the weekend, we lost ugly, and now

we're relegated and the manager's a fraud.

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That's fan whiplash, and

neither week is the truth.

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The truth's in the middle,

and we don't know it yet.

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The Marco Rose comparison.

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Oof.

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That's a proper dagger for RBL

fans, and Tiger Styles knows it.

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Flatters, entertains, doesn't

win the ones that matter.

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And I'll be fair, on two league

games, nobody can tell you if

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Demi Chilies is that or isn't.

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But I'll tell you where we find out.

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Europe.

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That's where the Rose ghost lives.

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That's the exam.

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And Nkunku's filling a spot

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I've said my piece.

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Four shots, two on target,

most threatening man in red

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in his first start back.

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If that's spot filling, I'll

take a squad full of it.

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But you're right, the goals have to come.

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Prove it on the pitch, Christopher

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' Cause here's the thing, Tiger Styles, you

wanna talk about laying an egg in Europe?

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Funny you should mention it, 'cause

that is exactly where we're headed next.

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Champions League on the road in Italy

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quick word, and it's not from a

sponsor, because we haven't got one.

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That's the whole point.

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RBL Talk has no corporate money

behind it, no ads sold, nobody in

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my ear telling me what I can and

can't say about the football club.

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Just me, you, and the truth as I see it.

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No agendas, no gatekeepers, and

I wanna keep it exactly that way.

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But independent doesn't mean free to run.

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There's the hosting, the data,

the kit that keeps this going.

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So if you get something out of

this show and you fancy keeping

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the lights on, there's a link

in the show notes to support us.

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Whatever you can spare

keeps this thing ours.

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And if you'd rather just give us your

time, come and join us live on the

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Digital Terrace feed every match day.

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We go live play by play, tactical

reactions, the sofa score breakdowns

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as they happen over on YouTube,

Twitch, Facebook, X, and Blue Sky.

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: 00:15:50

Come and shout at the screen with us.

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Best seat in the house, and it's free.

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: 00:15:56

Right, back to it

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so Tiger Styles wants to talk

about laying an egg in Europe.

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Well, here's your chance to be right

or wrong, because this week we're in

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Italy, Champions League, Como away.

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Thursday night over there, nine

o'clock kickoff Italian time, same

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clock as Leipzig, which for us here

in Adelaide is Friday morning wake-up

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call, half four in the morning, ACST.

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I'll be setting the alarm

and getting the coffee on.

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And let me tell you, forget the

plucky little Como narrative.

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This is not the Como of a few years back.

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Three games this Serie A season,

4-1 at Genoa, 2-1 at Napoli,

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Napoli away, and a draw at Udinese.

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Unbeaten.

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Seven goals in three, all on the road.

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We're walking into a buzzsaw that's

in red-hot form, and we're doing it

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just days after the Weserstadion.

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Buckle up

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but here's what makes this fascinating.

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Look at the two of us side by side,

and it's like staring in a mirror.

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We have fifty-nine percent

of the ball on average.

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They have fifty-nine point seven

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We take 22 shots a game.

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They take 20.

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Both of us dominate possession.

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Both of us pepper the goal.

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This is two teams who

want to play the same game

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Which means it comes down

to two things, who's more

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clinical and who's more careful?

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And on clinical, oh, the irony, because

both of us have come to the same disease

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We miss two and a half big chances a game.

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They miss one point three.

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After what we watched at

Bremen, 19 shots, one goal.

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Do I even need to say it?

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Whoever leaves their shooting boots in

the hotel loses this football match.

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That simple

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Here's where I see us winning it though.

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Two edges

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Edge one, the air.

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Como win 45% of their aerial duels.

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45.

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They've scored zero headed goals all

season, and they don't defend their box.

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No clean sheets in three.

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A goal conceded every single game.

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We win 51% in the air.

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We've already got a headed goal, and

we've got Orban, who won five of six at

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Bremen and should have buried that corner

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If this gets choked in open play,

set pieces are our cheat code.

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Load the box.

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Edge two.

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We simply make more.

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Four big chances a game to their 2.3.

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If, if we take them, we've

got the higher ceiling.

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The talent's there.

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The final ball just has to arrive.

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But here's the one that

keeps me up at night

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We lose possession 141 times a game.

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141.

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And Como, they run harder than anyone.

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99 kilometers, 92 sprints a

match, and they've hit six

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counterattacks in three games

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Bremen punished our sloppiness

on the break and beat us.

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Como are faster, and they're at home.

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If we cough it up cheap

the way we did on Saturday,

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We get counted into the

ground all over again.

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Protect the ball and this

is a shootout we can win.

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Gifted away and it's Bremen part two

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Which brings us to player watch.

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And this time, I'm not

giving you a like for like.

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I'm giving you the man who makes Como

tick against the man who has to stop him.

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Their creator, Nico Paz, against

whoever Demichelis trusts in our goal.

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Paz first

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If you don't know him yet, you will.

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Argentine, 21, the free-roaming

10 Como run everything through.

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76 touches a game, 91% passing,

drifts wide whenever he likes.

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Quick as you like, 34 kilometers an hour

top speed, and he'll have a crack himself.

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Four shots a game, those attack maps, Como

funnel it central, and central is Paz.

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He is the spine.

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Now the honest bit

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For all that influence, his end

products are still warming up.

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Zero big chances created this season.

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One goal, expected assists of 0.72.

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Sorry, that's 0.27.

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He's the conductor, not yet the killer.

327

: 00:21:40

So the job isn't to stop a world beater.

328

: 00:21:43

It is to smother the conductor

before he finds his rhythm.

329

: 00:21:50

Get tight to him centrally.

330

: 00:21:51

That's Seibold and Benzuzi's night.

331

: 00:21:54

Deny him the half turn and

don't give it away cheaply.

332

: 00:22:00

Because a loose ball to Paz in transition

is where he hurts you the most.

333

: 00:22:06

And in our goal

334

: 00:22:09

The big question of the week, does De

Michelis stick with Martine Vandevoort?

335

: 00:22:14

Because Vandevoort had

a shocker at Bremen.

336

: 00:22:17

Six flat, goals prevented

of minus one point four two.

337

: 00:22:23

A keeper who stopped less

than the average would.

338

: 00:22:27

A young man with a point to prove,

and what a stage to prove it

339

: 00:22:33

Or does the manager reach for

experience in Oran Nylund?

340

: 00:22:41

And here's a stat for you.

341

: 00:22:42

Nylund hasn't made a competitive

appearance for this football

342

: 00:22:46

club since 2022-23 season.

343

: 00:22:50

Three years, three games that

season, one clean sheet, a 6.9

344

: 00:22:56

average, and then nothing.

345

: 00:23:00

Imagine that.

346

: 00:23:01

Three years in the cold and your

comeback is a Champions League night in

347

: 00:23:05

Italy against a side scoring for fun.

348

: 00:23:09

So that's your player watch.

349

: 00:23:13

redemption or experience.

350

: 00:23:16

Van de Voort exercising Bremen

or Nylund dusting off the gloves.

351

: 00:23:22

Whoever it is, they've got to

be big because Paz and this

352

: 00:23:27

Como side will test them.

353

: 00:23:30

Keep your eye on our number

one, whoever's wearing it

354

: 00:23:37

Right, the prediction.

355

: 00:23:39

And you know the rules on this show.

356

: 00:23:41

I don't pull it out of thin air.

357

: 00:23:44

I go to the data and I tell you

it's a model, not a crystal ball.

358

: 00:23:50

Three Serie A games against

two Bundesliga games.

359

: 00:23:53

Small samples.

360

: 00:23:55

One blowout, each side

inflating the numbers.

361

: 00:23:59

Health warning applied

362

: 00:24:02

Here's what the numbers scream.

363

: 00:24:04

Goals.

364

: 00:24:06

Both teams score for fun.

365

: 00:24:08

Both concede.

366

: 00:24:09

Both waste big chances, and it's two

mirror image sides going at each other.

367

: 00:24:16

Como haven't kept a

clean sheet all season.

368

: 00:24:18

We've conceded in three of our

last four halves of football.

369

: 00:24:23

Nobody's keeping this one to one-nil.

370

: 00:24:26

So the data's honest answer,

I'll make it two-two.

371

: 00:24:31

A proper end-to-end European night where

both keepers pick it out at least twice.

372

: 00:24:39

And if you push me off the

fence, the swing is us.

373

: 00:24:43

If the clinical Leipzig turns

up and we take those four big

374

: 00:24:47

chances, we nick it two-three on

the road, and it's a statement.

375

: 00:24:53

But if we leak in transition

like we did at Bremen,

376

: 00:24:57

Como punish us 3-1, and Tiger Styles

gets to tell me, "They told me so."

377

: 00:25:03

My call, 2-2, and I'll take a

hard-earned away point in the Champions

378

: 00:25:09

League after the week we've had.

379

: 00:25:12

Prove the doubters wrong, boys

380

: 00:25:15

All right, that's the lot.

381

: 00:25:17

Bremen dissected, your takes

answered, Como previewed.

382

: 00:25:21

Let's wrap it up

383

: 00:25:27

Right, let's bring it home.

384

: 00:25:30

Three things to take away from today.

385

: 00:25:33

One, don't let the scoreline lie to you.

386

: 00:25:37

We didn't get outplayed at

Bremen, we got out-finished.

387

: 00:25:42

19 shots, one goal, three quarters of

the ball, and nothing to show for it.

388

: 00:25:49

The performance wasn't the

problem, the ruthlessness was.

389

: 00:25:52

Fix that one thing, and it's a

completely different Saturday.

390

: 00:25:57

Two, Nkunku's coming.

391

: 00:26:01

Four shots, two on target.

392

: 00:26:03

The brightest man in red on his first

start back in the starting lineup.

393

: 00:26:08

No goal yet, but the signs are all there.

394

: 00:26:12

Give him a month.

395

: 00:26:14

And three, keep one eye on our goalkeeper.

396

: 00:26:19

Whoever De Mancelis picks in

Italy, Vandevoordt for redemption

397

: 00:26:23

or Nylund out of the deep freeze.

398

: 00:26:26

That call might just

decide our European night.

399

: 00:26:31

Which brings me to this episode's

Digital Terrace Question

400

: 00:26:36

I wanna hear from you.

401

: 00:26:38

If you're naming the team

at Como, who starts in goal?

402

: 00:26:42

Vandevoort to bury the Bremen

ghost once and for all?

403

: 00:26:46

Or Nyland, three years in the

cold for the big night experience?

404

: 00:26:50

Tell me who, and tell me why.

405

: 00:26:55

You know how to reach me.

406

: 00:26:57

SpeakPipe, speakpipe.com/rbltalk.

407

: 00:27:02

Leave me up to five minutes of

audio, and I'll play the best

408

: 00:27:05

ones right here on the show.

409

: 00:27:08

Drop a comment on the episode over

on Spotify, or come argue about

410

: 00:27:12

it with the rest of us in the

digital terrace over on Discord.

411

: 00:27:17

And look, this show has no sponsors,

no agendas, no gatekeepers.

412

: 00:27:22

It's you, me, and the football, and

that is exactly how I wanna keep it.

413

: 00:27:28

If you wanna help it stay that way,

hit subscribe, leave us a review.

414

: 00:27:32

It generally moves the needle, and

everything's in the show notes, including

415

: 00:27:36

how to chip in to keep the lights on.

416

: 00:27:38

Every little bit keeps

this thing independent.

417

: 00:27:41

Thank you, truly.

418

: 00:27:43

That's your lot for the episode 119.

419

: 00:27:47

We cop the bad days on

the chin, and we go again.

420

: 00:27:51

Champions League is back.

421

: 00:27:53

Friday morning our time,

Thursday for most of the world.

422

: 00:27:57

Let's have it.

423

: 00:27:58

Tactics, Terrace, Truth.

424

: 00:28:01

Let's go, RBL.

425

: 00:28:03

I've been Justin Crozer, and

until next time, bye-bye for now