A Slice of Humble Pie: 4-1 Lessons & Prediction Reviews

Justin Crozer: 00:00:01

Four to one on the final day of the season.

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We looked at the squad back in

August, we analyzed the fixtures,

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and we thought we knew exactly

how this campaign would close out.

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But football, well, football

always has other plans.

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Today, we're looking at the

cold, hard reality of the pitch

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at the Europa Park Stadium.

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A heavy defeat to Freiburg to end the

season leaves a bitter taste in the mouth.

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But does the scoreboard

tell the whole story?

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How on earth does a perfectly matched 1.41

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expected goals turn into

a four-goal thrashing?

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Did our preseason predictions

age like fine wine or like milk

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left out in the summer sun?

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Plus, we'll be putting a magnifying

glass on the midfield with a head-to-head

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player watch battle to see exactly

where the engine room broke down.

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Let's get into it.

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Welcome back to RBL Talk,

the premier audio destination

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for everything RB Leipzig.

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Whether you're commuting to work,

hitting the gym, or already counting down

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the miserable football-less

until next season

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Justin Crozer: kicks off at the Red Bull

Arena, I am thrilled to have you with me.

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Today's episode is a packed one.

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We are going to dissect the

tactical nuances of that brutal

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four-one loss to SC Freiburg.

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We're going to pull apart the

timeline, look at the underlying

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numbers, and show exactly where

things went wrong, because it wasn't

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just bad luck, it was structural.

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Then we're diving into a dedicated

head-to-head player watch.

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In the center of the park, Nicolas

Seiwald versus Johan Mansabi, two

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totally different styles of midfield

play with two totally different outcomes.

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And finally, the moment of truth, holding

ourselves accountable for those season

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predictions we made back in episode 74.

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We have to face the music

on some of those takes.

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But before we kick off, a quick shout-out

to our independent supporters who

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keep the lights on here at RBL Talk.

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More on how you can join them later.

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Right now, let's talk football.

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All right, let's look at the tape

from the weekend against Freiburg.

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Let's really get into the weeds here.

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When the final whistle blew, the

four-one scoreboard told a story

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of absolute dominance by the hosts.

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If you just looked at the app and saw

the scoreline, you'd think we played off

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the park from minute one to minute 90.

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But the underlying metrics give us a much

deeper, much more frustrating picture

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of what actually happened out there.

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Looking at the match data, a few

things immediately jump off the

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screen, and they revolve around

this concept of empty possession.

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Let's talk about our possession phases.

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We held 59% of the ball.

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We completed 490 passes

compared to their 346.

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We even outshot them,

registering 14 shots to their 11.

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If you dominate possession and take more

shots, you usually win the football match.

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But the heat maps and the attack

momentum charts do not lie.

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Of the ball because they did have it.

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They had massive lethal

spikes in vertical momentum.

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They hit us with devastating

one-two punch in the first half

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that completely broke our spine.

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Let's look at the timeline.

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Minute 24, Jan-Niklas Beste

buries a high-value set piece.

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Our marking was disjointed, the line

was frantic, and we go down 1-0.

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Before we can even reset mentally,

before we can even catch our

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breath and settle the ball

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down, bam.

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Minute 26, Igor Matanović

nods in a throw-in

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Justin Crozer: set piece.

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Two goals in two minutes, both from

dead ball situations, where our

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defensive focus just evaporated.

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We had the ball for the next 20

minutes, but they already had the bite.

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Looking at the expected goals, this

is the stat that is going to keep

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the coaching staff awake at night.

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The XG was incredibly tight.

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1.41

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for Freiburg, 1.24

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for us.

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So how does a 1.41

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XG turn into four actual goals against us?

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It comes down to two things.

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Clinical finishing and a massive

disparity in goalkeeping.

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The men between the sticks were

the difference makers in this game.

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Noah Atubolu stood on

his head for Freiburg.

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He faced a barrage of half

chances that made five crucial

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saves, physically preventing 0.31

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expected goals from crossing

the line and earning a 7.8

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rating.

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He was commanding his box,

coming out for crosses and

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dictating their defensive shape.

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On the other end, Péter Gulácsi.

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Look, we love Pete,

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Justin Crozer: but the numbers are brutal.

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He managed only one single

save the entire match.

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He finished with a minus 1.85

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goals prevented metric,

walked away with a 6.0

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rating.

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It felt like every time Freiburg got

a clean look at the target, the ball

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was hitting the back of the net.

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But we can't just blame the keeper.

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Let's look at the attacking output.

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We had 14 shots.

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We touched the ball 28

times in their penalty box.

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We generated exactly four big chances,

but we converted zero of those big

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chances into goals.

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Conrad Harder up top.

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Justin Crozer: It was a rough watch.

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He managed only 20 touches

in 73 minutes on the pitch.

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He was completely nullified

by Matthias Ginter.

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Ginter didn't just lock down the

defense, he organized the entire back

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line, scored a goal himself in the

47th minute right after the half to

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kill our momentum, and grabbed an 8.0

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rating.

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Harder looked isolated, frustrated,

and ultimately ineffective.

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We were settling for low-quality

chances from difficult angles,

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while Freiburg carved us open

the middle and down the flanks.

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Speaking of the flanks, we have

to talk about Benjamin Henrichs.

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A 5.8

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rating, he touched the ball only 35 times

before being mercifully subbed off in

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the 63rd minute for Ridle Baku.

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Derry Scherhant

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Justin Crozer: absolutely

roasted our right side.

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He had a 7.6

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rating, scored the final goal in

the 75th minute, and registered

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161 meters of carrying distance.

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He was just gliding past

our defensive structure.

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Castello Lukeba tried to hold it together

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Justin Crozer: in the middle.

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He had 106 touches and won 12

ground duels, which is heroic, but

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he was constantly having to cover

for the wide areas getting exposed.

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It was a masterclass in counter-attacking

football from Freiburg, and a masterclass

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in how not to use possession from us.

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Now we need to talk about the engine room.

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If you want to know why a team

loses control of a match, you

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look at the center circle.

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And today, we're diving straight

into a head-to-head player watch,

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Nicholas Seiwald versus Johan Manzambi.

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When you look at the center

of the park, this specific

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matchup perfectly encapsulates

exactly why we lost this game.

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And frankly, why we've been struggling

in similar games all season.

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Let's start with our guy, Seiwald.

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Honestly, if you just glance at

his passing sheet in a vacuum,

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you'd think he had a great game.

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He played 73 minutes,

secured us a respectable 6.9

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rating, and his distribution was, on

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paper, almost flawless.

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He completed

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Justin Crozer: 43 of his 46 passes.

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That's a massive 93% success rate.

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He was tidy.

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He won four of his five attempted

tackles, and he carried the

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ball for nearly 170 meters.

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So what did he do wrong?

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He was too safe.

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Far, far too safe.

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In a game where we nearly had 60%

possession, and we were chasing

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a two-goal deficit from the 26th

minute onward, Seiwald kept the

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ball moving, but he rarely broke

the lines in a threatening way.

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He didn't register a

single successful dribble.

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His expected assists sat

at a microscopic 0.03.

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If you look at his pass map, there's

a lot of lateral movement, a lot

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of passing back to

Lukeba or out to the wide

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Justin Crozer: players

in non-threatening areas.

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He was doing the dirty work, recycling

the ball, keeping the possession stats

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high, but he wasn't hurting Freiburg.

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And when your advanced midfielder,

Christoph Baumgartner, is having a

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nightmare game, losing possession 12

times and missing a big chance with a 6.1

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rating, you need your deeper midfielders

to step up and force the issue.

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Seiwald didn't do that.

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Now let's look at the other side

of the coin, Johan Manzambi.

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He played 72 minutes before being subbed

off for Lucas Holler, but his impact

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was devastating, earning him a 7.5

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rating.

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He had fewer touches than Seiwald,

only 40 compared to Seiwald's 54.

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But it's what he did with that limited

time on the ball that mattered.

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Manzambi was a chaotic,

forward-driving force.

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He was the spearhead of their transition.

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He attempted six dribbles,

completing three of them.

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He won six ground duels, proving

he was more than happy to match

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our midfield's physicality.

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But most importantly, he was

always looking for the killer ball.

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Every time he picks his head

up, he was looking vertical.

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He created a big chance

and walked away with a

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crucial assist on that Igor

Matanović goal in the first half.

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Justin Crozer: Who won the battle?

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It has to be Manzambi.

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Seiwald won the passing

statistics absolutely.

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If this were a training drill for ball

retention, Seiwald gets top marks.

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But Manzambi won the

actual game of football.

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He was the direct, lethal transition

player that Freiburg needed,

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and our midfield simply couldn't

contain his vertical runs and

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creativity when it mattered most.

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It's a harsh, glaring lesson

in the difference between

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passive, sterile possession and

purposeful, direct attacking.

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All right, it's time for a massive

slice of humble pie, or maybe a

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victory lap, depending on which

take we're gonna be looking at.

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Let's rewind the clock all the way

back to episode seventy-four, our

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season preview show back in August.

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The optimism was flowing, the predictions

were bold, and the takes were piping hot.

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Now that we have the benefit of hindsight

and a finished, albeit frustrating

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season, let's see how those predictions

actually held up to the light of day.

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Prediction number one, the top goalscorer.

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I confidently sat here

at the microphone and

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told you all that Lois Openda was going

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Justin Crozer: to run away with

the golden boot for the club.

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I said it was a lock.

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It was a sure thing, right?

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The verdict?

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Well, seeing as he, he was sold

to Juventus shortly after the

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ink dried on that prediction, I'm

taking a massive L on this one.

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It completely derailed the attacking

plan we thought we were going to see.

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But the real kicker, our actual top

goalscorer for the season, ended

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up being Christoph Baumgartner with

thirteen goals across all competitions,

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a midfielder stepping up to lead the

lines because our traditional forwards

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couldn't find consistency, and because

the tactical shape had to completely

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warp to cover the loss of Openda.

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If you had Baumgartner as our top scorer

on your bingo card back in August, you are

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a certified tactical genius, and you need

to be working in our scouting department.

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Prediction number two,

breakout player of the season.

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I went

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on a limb and said Assan

Ouédraogo would cement himself

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Justin Crozer: as an undroppable

asset in the starting eleven by May.

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The verdict?

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A resounding absolute right.

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Even in that ugly four-one thrashing

this weekend, look at his numbers.

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He was our lone bright spot in the chaos.

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He walked away with a

seven point two rating.

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He completed twenty-three of twenty-three

passes, a hundred percent accuracy.

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In a game where we were constantly

under pressure in transition, he won

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eleven ground duels, carried the ball

a hundred and eight meters, and he

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scored our only goal in the thirty-third

minute to briefly give us a lifeline.

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He fought for the badge while

the shape around him collapsed.

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He is the real deal, and he

is a foundational piece for

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this club moving forward.

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And finally, prediction number

three, defensive stability.

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I predicted we would have one

of the tightest defences in the

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Bundesliga, making the Red Bull

Arena an absolute fortress and rarely

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getting caught on the counter-attack.

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Yeah, look, conceding four

goals on an XG of 1.41

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on the final day, even though it wasn't

at home at the Red Bull Arena, watching

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Derry Scherhant pull off those dribbles

and run 161 metres unopposed down our

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flank, watching Matanović

completely bully our

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Justin Crozer: centre-backs, that is

the ultimate proof that I was living

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in a fantasy land back in August.

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Our defensive transitions were

our Achilles heel all year long.

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We pushed our full-backs too high,

we left our holding midfielders

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isolated, and we left our keepers

out to dry way, way too many times.

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The high line is great when it works, but

when it breaks, it breaks spectacularly.

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That has to be the number

one priority for the coaching

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staff to fix before the autumn.

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And that brings us to the final

whistle for today's episode and for

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the match action of the 25-26 season.

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To review what we've covered today, the

underlying numbers from our 4-1 loss

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to Freiburg show that empty possession

without clinical finishing, creating

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exactly zero big chances from open

play will always get punished by teams

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who ruthlessly take their moments.

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A midfield head-to-head proved

that Manzambi's direct, chaotic

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attacking easily beats out

Seiwald's passive, safe possession.

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And my pre-season predictions were

officially turned upside down the

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exact moment Juventus came knocking

with a chequebook for Openda.

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But now I want to pass

the mic over to you.

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On June 3rd is going to be our

massive season review show.

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And for the Digital Terrace, I

want your voices front and centre.

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I want to know, what are

your overall thoughts on this

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rollercoaster of a season?

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And looking ahead to the summer transfer

window, what is the single most important

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position we need to upgrade before August?

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There are three ways you can get your

take on the show, and we'll be playing

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your audio and reading your comments

live on the season review episode.

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You can send a voice memo via SpeakPipe.

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You've got up to five minutes to record

your audio to make your passionate case.

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You can drop a comment directly on Spotify

while you're listening to this episode.

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Or you can post it right in the

Digital Terrace Discord channel.

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If you enjoyed today's tactical

breakdown, please hit that subscribe

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button, leave a review, and check

out the links in the show notes.

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We wanna keep this show completely

independent and free from

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corporate sponsors, no agendas, no

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gatekeepers, just pure Leipzig passion.

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If you

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Justin Crozer: wanna help cover the

hosting and production costs, you can

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find a support link down in there as well.

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Every bit helps keep the Digital Terrace

loud and independent here on RBL Talk.

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Thank you so much for tuning in.

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I've been Justin Crozer, and

until next time, bye-bye for now