UCL Bound! Schlager’s Strike, Orban’s Heroics & The Matchday 34 Preview

Justin Crozer: 00:00:19

Cue the Champions League anthem.

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We are officially back after that absolute

heartbreak of missing out on Europe's

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elite competition entirely last season.

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RB Leipzig is returning

to the Champions League.

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Hello and welcome to

episode 112 of RBL Talk.

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I am your host, Justin Crozer, and

today we're breaking down the massive,

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nervy, beautiful 2-1 victory over St.

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Pauli that officially punched our ticket.

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If you were writing a movie script about

this season, you literally could not write

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a better ending for the specific match.

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The tension, the tactical chess match,

and getting to watch Xaver Schlager

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score an absolute wonder goal in his

final home game at the Red Bull Arena.

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It was perfect, but as always on

this show, we don't just ride the

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emotion, we look into the data.

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Let's pull up the Sofascore match data

and get into the microscopic details.

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Because to be completely honest with

you, this match played out almost exactly

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like we predicted it would last week.

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We knew Alexander Blessin

was going to s- bring St.

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Pauli to Leipzig, park the bus,

and try to drag us into an ugly,

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frustrating, low-scoring affair, and

they certainly tried their hardest.

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When you look at the match overview,

we completely monopolized the football.

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We held a massive 70% possession

and completed 646 accurate passes,

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compared to their mere 211.

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But for the first 44 minutes,

all that possession felt hollow.

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It was frustrating by design.

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When a team packs the center of the

penalty area with three giant center-backs

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in a rigid 3-5-2, your traditional striker

is going to get swallowed up, and poor

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Rômulo felt every bit of that isolation.

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He walked away with a quiet 6.2

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rating, managing just 31 touches

and getting dispossessed 10 times.

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It wasn't a lack of effort

from him, it was just the

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reality of the tactical setup.

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There was no oxygen in

the middle of the pitch.

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On the other side of that battle, Tomoya

Endo was an absolute warrior for St.

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Pauli early on.

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He pulled a 6.8

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rating, and his defensive

numbers explain exactly why we

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couldn't break through initially.

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He won all six of his aerial

duels and six ground duels.

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Every time we tried to whip any hopeful

ball into the box, he was there to head

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it away, racking up five clearances.

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Because the center was blocked,

our wide players had to take on a

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massive physical burden to create

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. Their own chaos.

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Yann Diamande and Rajan Gruda were

absolute dribbling machines out there.

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Diamande's numbers are outrageous.

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Six successful dribbles

and eight ground duels won.

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He was certainly taking players on,

driving the ball forward over 210 meters.

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Gruda matched that intensity

with three successful dribbles

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of his own on the opposite flank,

generating a team-high 0.59

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XG.

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They had to play incredibly high-risk

one-on-one football just to force St.

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Pauli out of their shape.

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And we have to acknowledge that St.

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Pauli almost made us pay for pushing

so high to support those wingers.

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In the 34th minute, completely against

the run of play, Martijn Kaars got loose

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on a fast break and hit the woodwork.

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That was a 0.35

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XG chance, their best of the

entire match up to that point.

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It was a terrifying reminder that

even when you hold 70% possession,

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a low-block team only needs one

mistake to ruin your weekend.

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But our ultimate tactical victory

came from how we broke the supply

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lines of their 3-5-2 system.

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And it starts with our wingbacks.

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We completely pinned their

wide men, Pereka and Luis

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Opi, deep into their own half.

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Opi had a miserable afternoon

trying to contain our right flank.

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He was subbed off with a 6.4

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rating and zero successful dribbles.

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Because those wingbacks

couldn't get forward, St.

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Pauli's central midfielders

were left stranded.

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Having to cover impossible amounts

of ground, look at Joel Chima Fujita.

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He had to engage in a massive 20

ground duels just to put out the fires.

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He was so busy doing the dirty work that

he offered zero key passes going forward.

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His midfield partner, Connor

Metcalfe, completely ghosted

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the game, losing possession 13

times before being subbed off.

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And that midfield mismatch set the stage

for the emotional climax of the season.

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Right on the stroke of halftime,

in the 45th minute, Xavier

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Schlager found a breakthrough.

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I want to spend a minute on

Xavier here because a 7.7

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rating is a phenomenal send-off for

his final match at the Red Bull Arena.

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He logged 81 touches, carried

the ball over 316 meters, and

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completely ran the engine room.

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But that goal, you don't have

to look at the XG on this.

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It was not an easy chance.

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It registered just 0.12

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expected goals.

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But he struck it so perfectly

that the expected goals on

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target skyrocketed to 0.73.

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It was a vintage Schlager strike,

especially when we needed it most.

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And it completely shattered St.

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Pauli's game plan right

before the halftime whistle.

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Coming out of the half, we looked

to put the game to bed, which brings

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us to our pre-match player watch

duel, David Raum versus Eric Smith.

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I think it's safe to say David

Raum won the battle empathetically.

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Raum basically operated as a left

winger, putting up a seven-point-four

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rating and providing the crucial

assist in the fifty-fourth minute.

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Meanwhile, we completely

starved Eric Smith of the ball.

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I warned you all last week that

Smith is their passing metronome, but

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under our relentless press, he only

managed forty-six touches all game.

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And look at the Sofa Score passing radar.

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It is covered in red, inaccurate

arrows pointing forward.

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We forced him to rush his

clearances until he was subbed

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off in the eighty-nineth minute.

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Raum's fifty-fourth-minute cross

found none other than Willi Orban.

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If you're a member of the Digital Terrace,

you know how crucial we can be of the

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backline last week against Leverkusen.

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Well, Willi Orban responded

with an absolute monster class.

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Sofa Score gave him an outrageous

eight-point-nine rating.

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He had a hundred and sixty touches.

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He completed a hundred and forty of

his hundred and forty-six passes.

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He completely dictated

the game from the back.

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And that goal, he buried an incredibly

difficult header from a corner that just

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had zero point zero two XG probability.

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Pure effort from a club leader.

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Up two-nil, Ol Werner went to the bench

in the sixty-nineth minute, bringing

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on Nicolas Seiwald and Max Grafe.

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The goal was to lock down the

flanks and recycle possession.

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From a passing perspective, they did.

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Grafe hit ninety-two percent

pass accuracy, and Seiwald hit

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eighty-five percent, but we lost that

aggressive forward-thinking bite.

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Both subs walked away with six-point-three

ratings, our lowest of the match.

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Our intensity dropped, and St.

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Pauli manager Alexander

Blessin smelled blood.

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He threw on Sesay in the

seventy-second minute, and the

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data shows exactly why he earned a

seven-point-five rating off the bench.

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In the eighty-sixth minute, Jackson

Irvine, who we kept completely

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quiet all game, finally slipped

his marker and found Sesay.

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The latter took a brutal zero point one

two XG half chance and turned it into a

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zero point six six XGOT clinical finish.

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Just like that, it's two-one,

and the panic sets in.

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Those last four minutes of stoppage

time were absolute torture.

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Irvine nearly broke our hearts in

the ninety-fourth minute with a shot

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on target, and Daniel Siani even

managed a header in the dying seconds.

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But the lads dug deep.

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Castello Lukeba cleared the...

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his lines.

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Willi Orban stood tall.

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The final whistle blew,

two-one to RB Leipzig.

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We suffered for it, but the

Champions League is coming

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back to the Red Bull Arena.

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That takes us right from the

data sheet to the grandstands.

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Let's head over to the digital

terrace for my favorite part

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of the show, the Fan Voice.

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I threw three questions into the

Discord after the final whistle.

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Where does Schlager rank in our history?

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How did you rate the tactical

setup and that late scare?

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And who was your man of the match?

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Ava dropped a great response

in the chat, and he came out

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swinging right out of the gate.

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On Schlager's legacy, he says he's

easily top five in the last four years,

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ranking him just behind Sabitzer, Xavi

Simons, Gulacsi, and maybe Nkunku.

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But then he dropped this absolute grenade.

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Ava wrote, and I quote, "I

think Leipzig's Nkunku was far

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worse than the stats showed."

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Ava, we might need to dedicate

an entire extra time episode

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just to debate that Nkunku take.

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That is incredibly spicy.

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But I completely agree that putting

Xaver Schlager in that elite top five

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category is totally justified after

everything he's given to this club

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When it came to s- the late St.

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Pauli push, Ava was brutally honest.

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He said, "The late push happened

because the players weren't even trying.

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They felt too comfortable, and

that almost cost us the game."

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And Terrace, Ava is spot on here.

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It completely validates what we just

talked about in the match review regarding

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those sixty-ninth-minute substitutions.

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The passing was secure, but the intensity

just completely fell off a cliff.

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When you get too comfortable

in the Bundesliga, even against

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a low-block team fighting for

survival, you can get punished.

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Lesson three on Cissé, we switched

off, and suddenly we were fighting

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for our Champions League s- lives.

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Ava's eye test saw exactly

what the moment data showed us.

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Next up, we have an audio submission

from Kenny over on SpeakPipe.

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Let's take a listen.

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Kenny: Hey guys, so it may seem sort of

obvious, but I think today is the perfect

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chance to reflect on the contributions

Willie Orban has made to this team and,

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um, and really sort of give him his dues.

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So for me, um, when you have a team

where, uh, there's so much rotation year

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over year on, on who's in the team and

there's so much youth and inexperience,

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uh, you need a, a real calm, defensive

bedrock to sort of just talk people

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through the game, make sure everyone's

doing their jobs and, uh, just be the

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sort of steady foundation at the back.

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And that's, that's been him, e-

especially I think this decade.

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Like, if you look just over the past

six seasons in the: 2020

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uh, about 170 league games for the club,

which is streets ahead of anyone else.

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Even Gelassie, who would sort of,

uh, have been his cohort at the back

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there, obviously he missed a lot of

time with injury, and there's been

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times where Blazevich and Van der Vort

and, and others were ahead of him.

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So i- it's really been him as the

stalwart at the back, the ever-present,

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and, and obviously he's had a lot

of different partners beside him.

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But I think he makes them all better,

uh, just with his, with his cool and,

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uh, his efficiency and his experience.

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And I think, um, today I, I couldn't have

been happier for him to be the person

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who ultimately scored the goal that, that

qualified us for the Champions League.

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Um, and it's, and it's, it's, it's

notable because when he scores, he

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doesn't just score simple goals.

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These are always...

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Like that, that goal he scored

today, that's a difficult technique.

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He's, you know, maybe 12 yards from

goal, and he puts it back across,

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you know, and gives the keeper no

chance into the opposite corner.

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And it's, it's a tough goal, and

ultimately it's a goal that wins us the

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game and, and puts the club on a different

financial footing for the future.

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So I just think today is the day

for Willie to get his flowers.

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For me, he was the man of the match.

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Um, I really hope, I know he's 34

now, and there's talk of him moving

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on, but I really hope he gets, uh,

at least next season, even if it is

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in a reduced role, and he gets to

lead the team out, uh, as we return

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to the Champions League next year.

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But, uh, what a fantastic

day all over, all in all.

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Um, great to be back at,

at Europe's top table.

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Justin Crozer: Kenny, you

are absolutely spot on.

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Kenny makes a fantastic point about

Willy Orban's longevity, noting he

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has played about 170 league games in

the: 2020

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calm defensive bedrock for a squad

that sees so much youth and rotation.

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You gave him your Man of the Match,

and the numbers back you up 100%.

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Sofascore completely agrees with your

eye test, handing him an outrageous 8.9

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rating.

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You can also point out how difficult

that goal actually was, having to

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head it from around 12 yards out and

put it back across into the opposite

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corner where the keeper had no chance.

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That was a phenomenally

difficult technique.

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In fact, the expected goals probability

on that exact header was just 0.02

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XG, but he placed it so perfectly

that the expected goals on

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target jumped up to 0.37.

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And to your point about him being the calm

bedrock for this team, he had 160 touches

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and completed 140 of his 146 passes.

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He completely ran the show from the back.

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At 34 years old, I'm right

here with you, Kenny.

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He absolutely needs to be leading

us out on the pitch in the

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Champions League next season.

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That wraps up the Fan Voice

segment and officially puts the St.

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Pauli victory in the books.

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The Champions League is secured, but

the Bundesliga season isn't over yet.

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Let's pivot to our final away

trip of the campaign, matchday 34.

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We are heading to the Europa-Park

Stadion to take on SC Freiburg

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this Saturday, May 16th.

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The physical and emotional contrast

between these two squads heading into the

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final match day is absolutely staggering.

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We are coming in completely buzzing.

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We sit comfortably in third place with

sixty-five points, and we have won four

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of our last five Bundesliga matches.

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We have our Champions League

ticket secured, and we're

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playing with the house money.

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Freiburg, on the other hand, is

walking into a buzzsaw of, of fatigue.

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They are currently clinging to seventh

place with forty-four points, but they are

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running an absolute gauntlet right now.

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They had to pour everything into

th-that massive Europa League

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semifinal against Braga on May

eighth, securing a three-one win.

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Having to t-turn right around and play

HSV just two days later clearly took

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a heavy toll on their legs, resulting

in a frustrating three-two loss.

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They have also suffered a brutal four-nil

defeat to Dortmund recently, showing just

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how fragile their defensive structure

can be when they are stretched thin.

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We have to ruthlessly exploit those

heavy legs because the overall

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statistical gulf between these

two sides this season is massive.

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When you look at the season summary,

we have been significantly more

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dominant in almost every metric.

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We have scored sixty-five

goals to their forty-seven.

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We average fifty-three point seven

percent possession and complete four

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hundred and twenty-six accurate passes a

match, while Freiburg sits at forty-eight

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point two percent possession and

struggles more with the ball retention.

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We are also creating an average

three point six big chances per

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game to their two point one, and

defensively it's not even close.

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We have secured eleven clean sheets in

the league compared to Freiburg's six.

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They have leaked a massive

fifty-six goals this season.

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If you want to know exactly when

we're going to break them, look

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at the goal distribution data.

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Freiburg is incredibly vulnerable

coming out of the halftime break.

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They have conceded seventeen

goals between the forty-sixth and

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sixtieth minute this season, their

absolute worst defensive window.

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Conservatively, that is the exact

time our offense catches fire.

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We have scored thirteen goals

in that exact fifteen-minute

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window right after the half.

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If it is tight going into the tunnel,

expect us to come out sprinting while

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they are still trying to find their legs.

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Finally, history is heavily

on our side for this one.

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We are currently riding a fourteen-match

unbeaten streak against them.

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We took them down two-nil back in

January, and we have a habit of

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dictating the pace right from the

kickoff, scoring first in six of our

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last eight matchups against them.

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The blueprint for match

day 34 is crystal clear.

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Dominate the ball, make them chase

shadows, exploit their heavy legs

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right after halftime, and close

out the campaign with three points.

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But to pull off the perfect away

day and exploit those heavy legs, we

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have to win the battle in the center

of the park, which brings us to our

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final player watch duel of the season.

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The entire game hinges on one specific

matchup in the middle of the pitch.

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SC Freiburg's breakout wonderkid, Johan

Man Zambi, going head-to-head with our

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Austrian workhorse, Nicholas Seiwald.

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Man Zambi has been incredible this season.

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The 20-year-old Swiss international

has made 26 appearances and

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boasts an impressive 7.21

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average sofa score rating.

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Looking at his attacking output,

he's bagged five goals and

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three assists in the league.

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But he isn't just a luxury player.

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He does the dirty work too, winning 5.4

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ground duels per game.

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He is a fast, dynamic,

and incredibly dangerous.

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: 00:17:18

But here is the catch.

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: 00:17:20

After that brutal Braga and HSV

double, he has to be running on fumes.

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: 00:17:26

That is exactly where

Nicholas Seiwald comes in.

303

: 00:17:29

Seiwald is the absolute

engine of our midfield.

304

: 00:17:31

He's been a beacon of availability, making

32 appearances and logging a massive 2,630

305

: 00:17:39

minutes in the Bundesliga this season.

306

: 00:17:41

He sits deep, completely dictates

the tempo with an 89% pass

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: 00:17:45

accuracy, and disrupts everything

the opposition tries to build.

308

: 00:17:49

He averages 3.6

309

: 00:17:50

balls recovered and 1.8

310

: 00:17:52

interceptions per game.

311

: 00:17:54

His job on Saturday is simple.

312

: 00:17:57

Find Man Zambi, man-mark him

into the ground, and exploit

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: 00:18:01

those tight Freiburg legs.

314

: 00:18:03

If Seiwald can neutralize their young

star and cut off the supply lines,

315

: 00:18:07

Freiburg's entire attacking structure will

collapse, and we will be walking away with

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: 00:18:12

three points to close out the campaign.

317

: 00:18:15

Now it's time to turn

the show over to you.

318

: 00:18:17

We're coming off an incredibly emotional

Champions League clinching victory, and

319

: 00:18:21

just watched an absolute maestro play

his final game at the Red Bull Arena.

320

: 00:18:25

So here is my question for you

on the Digital Terrace this week.

321

: 00:18:30

With Xavier Schlager officially

moving on after that fairytale

322

: 00:18:33

farewell goal, who takes the mantle?

323

: 00:18:36

Is Nicolas Seiwald ready to be the

undisputed anchor of our midfield next

324

: 00:18:40

season, or does the front office need to

go out and make a massive summer signing?

325

: 00:18:45

And if we do need to bring in

someone, who are you picking and why?

326

: 00:18:50

I want to know who's at the top

of your transfer target list.

327

: 00:18:55

Get your voice heard.

328

: 00:18:55

This podcast is built for RB Leipzig fans

all over the world, and I want your takes.

329

: 00:19:00

Drop your thoughts in the Digital Terrace

Discord channel, hit up our social

330

: 00:19:04

media pages, or my absolute favorite,

leave an audio message via SpeakPipe.

331

: 00:19:08

You've got up to five minutes to

record your thoughts, and the most

332

: 00:19:11

insightful takes will get played

right here on the very next episode.

333

: 00:19:15

And if you love these tactical deep

dives and wanna help keep RBL Talk

334

: 00:19:18

running and the server costs covered,

please consider supporting the show.

335

: 00:19:22

Check out the show notes for the support

links, the Discord invite, and all the

336

: 00:19:26

ways to submit your SpeakPipe audio.

337

: 00:19:29

That's all for today's extended breakdown.

338

: 00:19:31

Enjoy the Champions League celebrations.

339

: 00:19:33

Keep backing the lads, and let's get

ready to exploit a tired SC Freiburg.

340

: 00:19:37

I've been Justin Crozer, and

until next time, bye-bye for now.