Total Suffocation: The 4.49 xG Masterclass & Bracing for Leverkusen

Justin Crozer: 00:00:19

Five straight wins in the Bundesliga Total tactical domination, and

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a stranglehOle on that third place spot.

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Welcome back to RBL Talk, the only

solo podcast dedicated to breaking down

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the tactical heartbeat of RB Leipzig.

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I'm Justin ands.

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Great to have you with me.

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Whether you are listing on your

commute at the gym or chilling at home.

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Before we get into the tactical weeds

of our victory over Union Berlin, let's

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take a step back and look at the broader

picture in the Bundesliga right now.

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If you look at the table, we

are absolutely flying, sitting

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in third place with 62 points.

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We have built a massive five point buffer

over both Stuttgart and Hoffenheim right

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below us, and looking up at the table.

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Dortmund is sitting on 67 points.

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We are keeping the pressure right on

their heels for that runner up Spot behind

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Bayern Ole Werner has this team clicking

at the exact right moment of the season.

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The belief is there, the structure

is rigid, and the execution on

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the pitch is a joy to watch.

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So let's talk about exactly how

that execution looked last weekend.

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Let's step off the pitch and up

to the tactical cam to view our

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three one win over Union Berlin.

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If you just looked at the final

score line, you might think

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union put up a decent fight.

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But when I pulled up the data on SofaScore

this morning, the numbers painted a

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picture of absolute suffocating control.

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From the opening whistle to the final

whistle, we held 67% possession.

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Now, possession without purpose doesn't

mean much, but we did something with it.

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We generated a staggering 4.49

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expected goals compared to union's.

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Microscopic 0.19,

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let that sink in.

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A 4.49

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xg is an offensive masterclass.

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We didn't just beat them.

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We systematically dismantled

their defensive block.

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The game was truly won and a devastating

three minute blitz in the first half.

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Union came into the Red Bull Arena

wanting to frustrate us, keep it

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tight and look for a set piece.

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But at the 22nd minute, Max

Finkgräfe blew the game wide open.

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He got into a brilliant position

and the data backs this up.

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His expected goals on Target XGOT for

that left footed strike jump to 0.62.

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Meaning the placement was phenomenal

before Union could even process

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what happened and reset their lines.

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Rômulo struck three minutes later

at the 25 minute mark to double

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the lead that quick one-two punch.

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Completely broke union's tactical

game plan, forcing them to open up,

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which played perfectly into our hands.

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Let's talk about individual performances,

because a few of our boys were unplayable

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looking at the SofaScore attack maps.

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Our shape was heavily tilted

towards the right channel.

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And the player stats show exactly why.

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Ridle Baku was a force of nature.

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He grabbed an 8.1

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rating, capping his day off with

that 63rd minute goal, but it was

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his work rate that impressed me.

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He had 24 carries and almost 68 meters

of progressive carrying distance.

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He essentially owned the right

flank, pushing union backward

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every time he touched the ball.

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But the real MVP for me, the absolute

engine of this match was Yan Diomande.

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Diomande pulled an 8.3

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rating, and if you look at

his heat map, he practically

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owned the center of the park.

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He won 11 of his 19 ground duel.

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He completed six of his seven

dribbles and game where Union

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wanted to clog the midfield.

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Diomande just danced right through

them and we can't talk about midfield

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dominance without shouting out.

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Xaver Schlager, a 7.7

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rating for the captain.

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He completed 95% of his

passes, 78 out of 82.

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But here's the crazy stat.

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Schlager had over 412 meters

of total carrying distance.

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He wasn't just passing side to side.

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He was the metronome receiving the

ball from Willi Orban at the back and

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driving us into the attacking third.

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When you flip the tactical camera

and look at Union Berlin's data, it's

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honestly a picture of complete isolation.

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Union relies heavily on their wing

backs, Tom Rothe and Christopher Trimmel.

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But our press was so relentless

that both of them were pinned

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deep in their own half all game.

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Rothe lost possession 16 times.

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They couldn't find an

out ball because of that.

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Their central midfielders,

Janik Haberer, and Rani Khedira

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were completely choked out.

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Khedira managed only 17 accurate

passes the entire match.

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And because the midfield was

suffocated, union strikers, Andrej

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Ilić and Oliver Burke were starved.

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Burke lost possession 13 times,

and Ilić managed a measly 0.04

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xg.

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They had to practically drop

into their own penalty area

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just to get a touch in the ball.

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'cause Willi Orban and El

Chadaille Bitshiabu had them

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entirely in their pockets.

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To be brutally honest with you, if

union's backup keeper Carl Klaus hadn't

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been forced on to come on for the

injured Frederik Rønnow in the 31st

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minute, this would've been a massacre.

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Klaus made four crucial saves

from inside the box, earning a 7.9

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rating.

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He kept it respectful.

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Without him, we were

looking at six or seven nil.

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One last thing on this

game before we look ahead.

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Ole Werner's game management.

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Even when the game was won, the

tactical discipline never dropped.

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Werner goes to his bench

in the second half.

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Bring on guys like Conrad Harder.

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And Brajan Gruda harder.

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Immediately slotted in and grabbed a 7.3

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rating in his 20 plus minutes.

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But my favorite stat of the whole match.

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Tidiam Gomis was subbed on in

the 90th minute for Antonio Nusa.

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He played exactly one minute of football,

and in that one minute he managed a key

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pass and create a big chance with a 0.13

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expected assists.

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That tells you everything you

need to know about the mentality

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of this squad right now.

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Relentless until the final whistle.

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Before we look ahead to Leverkusen,

it's time for the RBL talk segment.

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This is where we hand the mic over

to you and bring the voices of the

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digital terrace right onto the show.

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I asked for your takeaways from our

total dominance over Union Berlin,

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and you absolutely delivered.

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First up, we have a message

from the Discord from L Jazzman.

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He asks, what are your thoughts

on Ole Werner as a coach?

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In my opinion, he's a solid Bundesliga

coach, but I actually can't see him

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perform next year in European competition.

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One of the main reasons why he hasn't

been sacked yet is that Diomande is

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carrying us, but without him, we'd

have a lot less points and therefore he

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probably would've already been sacked

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Last jazz band mate, I appreciate the

honesty and you definitely aren't the

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only one feeling that underlying tension.

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It's impossible to deny that Yan Diomande

is playing out of his skin right now.

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We just looked at the data and saw how he

absolutely bullied the center of the park

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and carried the bull through the lions.

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But to play devil's advocate

here, generating 4.49

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expected goals and completely

pinning union's wing backs into

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their own penalty area isn't just

individual brilliance from Diomande.

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That is structural dominance.

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Werner got the passing

triggers tactically.

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Perfect last weekend.

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That being said, you make a

completely fair point about Europe.

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The Champions League is a totally

different tactical beast, and Werner is

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absolutely going to have to prove he can

adapt his game plan against the elite.

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Great take.

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Next up, we have a tweet translated from

German from at Daniel Carr, 7 1 5 0 7 car.

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Daniel says yes.

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We have developed really well and shown

a strong performance, but the lack of

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conversion of chances remains a problem.

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Daniel, danke for writing in and mate, you

have hit the absolute nail on the head.

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It is so easy to look at a three

one scoreboard and think everything

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is perfect, but the SofaScore data

completely backs up your eye test.

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We generate a 4.49

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expected goals, and we created

nine big chances in the match.

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But we missed seven of them.

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You can afford to be a bit wasteful when

you hold a team like Union Berlin to 0.19

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xg.

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But looking ahead to this week, if we

miss seven big chances in a shootout at

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the Bay Arena, a team with Leverkusen's

firepower, we'll make us pay for it.

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We have to be more clinical.

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Massive thanks to everyone on

the Digital Terrace who wrote in.

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Keep them coming because this

segment is all about your voices,

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We can celebrate three points today,

but the calendar does not stop.

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Next up, we are packing our bags

for a massive away day at the Bay

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Arena against Bayer Leverkusen.

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Leverkusen are currently sitting

in six place with 55 points.

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They are fighting tooth and nail to

secure European football for next season.

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So we are going to face a desperate,

highly motivated side if the

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head-to-head data tells us anything.

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It's that we need to prepare

for an absolute shootout.

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Throw the concept of a boring nil-nil.

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Draw out the window.

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Look at our last four

meetings in the Bundesliga.

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Four goals, four goals,

five goals and five goals.

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They got the better of us back

in December with the three

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one win at the Red Bull Arena.

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But we all remember going into their

building last season and walking away

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with a massive three two victory.

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Leverkusen is going to try to

dictate the tempo on their home turf.

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They like to overload the center

and play intricate passes to break

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down defensive blocks, which brings

us to this week's player watch.

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If we are going to survive the Bay Arena,

we have to neutralize Patrick Schick.

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Looking at his recent form,

the big man is hitting up at

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exactly the wrong time for us.

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He just bagged a brake

against Köln with a 7.8

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rating.

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And his seasoned data shows

exactly where the danger lies.

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13 of his goals have come from inside the

box, and he's a massive threat in the air.

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With four headed goals so

far, this sets up the ultimate

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tactical battle of the match.

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Patrick Schick versus Willi Orban.

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This is going to be a heavy

hitting heavyweight clash right

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in the heart of our penalty area.

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Schick is a classic target man

winning nearly 60% of his aerial dues.

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But if there's anyone in the

Bundesliga equipped to shut

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him down, it's Willi Orban.

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His seaons numbers are absolutely immense.

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He's winning 70% of his

aerial dues pulling down over

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four per game an average.

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An incredible 7.5

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clearances to keep the box clean.

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If all band can command the area match

schick's physicality and cut off their

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central focal point, we force lever

queue in to beat us from the outside.

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When we win the ball, we need to

bypass their counter press immediately.

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Get the ball out to guys like Ridle

Baku, exploit the space, their wing

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back sleeve behind, and let them run.

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If we execute that, we keep this

five game winning streak alive.

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Now it's time to turn

the show over to you.

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We just watched our back line push

incredibly high to completely suffocate

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Union Berlin, but with the sheer pace

that Leverkusen has on the counter.

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I have a question for you.

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Do we accept that we might be vulnerable

and stick to that aggressive high line to

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try to choke them out at the Bay Arena,

or do we drop 10 yards deeper to protect

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ourselves from that transition, even with

the attacking drawbacks that might bring?

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Get your voice heard

on the Digital Terrace.

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This podcast is built for RB

Leipzig fans all over the world.

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Drop your takes in the Discord channel.

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Hit up our social media pages.

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Send an email or my personal favorite,

leave an audio message via SpeakPipe.

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You've got five minutes to record

your thoughts and the best, most

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insightful takes will get played

right here on the very next episode.

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Also, if you love these tactical

deep dives and want to help

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keep RBL talk running, please

consider supporting the show.

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Check out the show notes to the support

links, the discord invite, and all the

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ways to submit your SpeakPipe audio.

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That's all for today's breakdown.

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Keep backing the boys.

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Stay tactical.

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I've been Justin Crozer, and

until next time, bye-bye for now.