Episode 122

When We Fall Behind, We Fall Apart

Full Time — The definitive weekly breakdown.

In This Episode:

  • 📊 Match Review: Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig (SofaScore Data Analysis)
  • 🔎 Player Watch: Miguel Gutiérrez vs Antonio Nusa — Did they make the difference?
  • 🔮 The Preview: RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt (H) & Predictions
  • 💬 Fan Voice: Featured takes from shumi on X and Kenny in the Discord

Don’t Miss Out:

  • 🏟️ The Digital Terrace: Don’t just watch — join the community. Our Discord is the digital equivalent of the standing area; it’s where we talk tactics, vent after a loss, and celebrate every goal 24/7. Grab your spot on the terrace here: https://discord.gg/jE6ZzwcCYu
  • 📅 Next Livestream: RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt (MD5) — Sat 10/10, 18:30 CEST Red Bull Arena
  • 📥 Get Involved: Send questions via socials or record an audio message on SpeakPipe to be played on-air.
  • 🗣️ Join the Show: Want to represent your club or share your RBL take? Book a guest spot here: https://rbltalk.captivate.fm/booking
  • ☕ Support the Show: Help us cover running costs here: https://rbltalk.captivate.fm/support

Partners & Credits:

🎵 Music: Andrii Poradovskyi (Pixabay)

Transcript
Justin Crozer:

Another top spiel, another one that got away.

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Two-nil at the BI Arena.

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And if you only looked at the

scoreline, you'd nod along and

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think, "Okay, tight game away at

one of the best sides in the league.

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It's one of those.

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Move on."

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But here's the thing.

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I want to sit with you today.

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Two-nil flattered us.

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It genuinely did.

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And somehow, at the very same time,

the referee had a first half he'll

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want to quietly remove from his memory.

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Both of those things are true at once,

and holding both in your head is the

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only way, honest, to talk about this game

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So that's what we're going to do.

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We're going to be honest about

it, where this was lost, and I'll

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tell you now, it wasn't in goal.

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Whatever you've read on the timeline,

what the numbers actually say

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about Miguel Gutierrez and Antonio

Nusa, because we called that duel

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last episode and the result's in.

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And then we turn the page

because Frankfurt are coming

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to the Red Bull Arena.

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And on paper, on paper, this is exactly

the kind of game we need right now.

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This is RBL Talk.

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Welcome back to RBL Talk, the independent

community-funded RB Leipzig podcast.

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No agendas, no gatekeepers, just

tactics, the terrace, and the truth.

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I'm Justin Crozer, coming to you

from the bottom of the world in

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Adelaide, and this is episode 122.

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Let me give you the running order

so you know where we're headed.

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First up, the full postmortem

on Leverkusen away, match

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day four, and I mean full.

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We had the Sofascore data

crawling all over this one.

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Every player, both keepers, the shot

maps, the momentum, and I'll walk

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you through exactly what it reveals.

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That includes our Player Watch result, the

Gutierrez-Mnusu duel we set last episode.

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I'll tell you who won it, and this

is the interesting bit, why the loser

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might actually be a reason for optimism.

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Then, fan voice from the Digital Terrace.

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Two cracking submissions this week,

and they could not be more different.

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One's a sharp little one-liner

about the officiating.

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One's a proper thoughtful essay, and

I'm going to give one of them a friendly

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bit of pushback with the numbers to back

me up, because that's what we do here.

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We don't just nod along.

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And we look ahead, Frankfurt at home.

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Straight after the international break,

I've got the preview data, a fresh Player

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Watch duel for you to chew on, and a

score prediction built off the numbers.

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Settle in wherever you

choose to listen to this one.

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If you need to pause it now, now's

the time, because you're not going

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to want to miss out on how the

downfall happened over the weekend.

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Right.

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Leverkusen.

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Let's get into it.

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Bayer Leverkusen two, RB Leipzig nil.

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The Bayerina, Patrik Schick on

the stroke of halftime, Miguel

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Gutiérrez just after the hour mark.

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On the surface, a manageable defeat

away at a very, very good side.

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Nobody's shocked.

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But under the surface, we got outplayed.

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And I wanna be careful with my

words here, because there's a

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difference between two things.

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We didn't get battered.

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We got outplayed.

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Battered is hiding and men against

boys job where you're hanging on.

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That's not what this was.

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Outplayed is subtler.

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It's a side that's just that

little bit better than you in the

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moments that matter, in the areas

that matter, and grinds you down.

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That's what this was, and the data

draws that line really, really clearly.

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So let's start where it counts,

with the expected goals.

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Leverkusen, 2.19.

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Us, 0.85

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Now, if you're new to this show,

expected goals, XG, is just

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a measure of chance quality.

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Add up how likely every shot was

to go in, and that's your number.

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Two point one nine says

Leverkusen created a hatful.

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Nought point eight five says

we barely laid a glove on them.

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And it gets darker.

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Big chances.

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The guilt edged you should score

these ones five to them, one to us.

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Shots on target, six to three.

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But here's the single number

that tells the whole story.

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And I want you to really hear this one.

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Expected goals on target.

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Theirs was two point three six.

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Ours was nought point five nine.

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Let me translate that,

because it's the ball game.

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Expected goals on target measures

the quality of the shots that

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actually made the keeper work.

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The ones on the frame.

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Ours was nought point five nine.

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For the entire 90 minutes.

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We barely tested Mark

Flecken all afternoon.

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And when we did get a shot away,

we were pulling the trigger from

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places you simply don't score from.

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The edge of the box, tight angles, off

balance, half chances dressed up as shots.

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And that's the whole game

in a single sentence.

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We had the ball, but

we did nothing with it.

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Look at the possession.

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Fifty-one, forty-nine.

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Basically dead even.

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We actually made more entries into

the final third than they did.

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Fifty-six to forty-six.

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So it's not like we

couldn't get up the pitch.

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We got up the pitch plenty.

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We just hit a wall the moment we

got there and settled for pot shots.

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Possession without penetration.

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All the ball, none of the bite.

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So the obvious question, why?

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Why couldn't we get through?

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And the answer's two names sitting

right in the middle of the park,

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Ezequiel Fernández and Alex

García, Leverkusen's double pivot.

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Fernández was an absolute menace.

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11 ground duels, won six of

them, five tackles, three won.

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That is more ball-winning than

anyone on the pitch on either side.

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Every time we tried to play through

the middle, he was there, nicking

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it, blocking it, breaking it up, and

next to him, García was the calm one.

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91 touches, 89% passing, 95% of it in his

own half, just sitting there, recycling,

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controlling the tempo, never flustered.

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Because the two of them, they slammed the

door on the entire center of the pitch,

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bolted it, and that right there is why

our shot map looks like the way it does.

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Everything shoved out wide,

everything from distance.

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Because the front door was shut,

and all we had left was the windows.

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When people say a game was won in

midfield, this is what they really mean.

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It's not a cliché this time.

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It's on the stat sheet.

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But if midfield is where we got

controlled, our fullbacks are where

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we got stretched, both of them.

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And this is the bit I really want you to

clock, because it sets up Player Watch

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Miguel Gutierrez played left back for

Leverkusen, a defender, and he was the

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best player on the pitch by a distance.

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An 8.7

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rating, man of the match, and he spent

the afternoon getting forward and running

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at Gruda, Gomez and Baku down our right.

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Over and over.

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Eight ground duels, 5-1, 13 carries

from a full-back, relentless.

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But before we talk about Antonio

Nusa, I want to mention something.

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And it's on the same side.

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Rydal Baku was having his own nightmare.

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Our right back racked up 12 ground duels.

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12.

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He won just seven of them.

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So it's not like he was

getting skinned every time.

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But 12 individual battles in

one game is the fingerprint

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of a full-back under siege.

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Both of our full-backs were on

islands, both fighting fires.

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That's not a criticism of either of them.

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That's a very good team stretching us wide

on both flanks and picking its moments.

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So let's talk about how the goals actually

arrived, because the sequence matters.

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First, and this is the moment

the whole game pivots on.

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34th minute, Christopher Nkunku

puts the ball in the net.

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The away end goes up, and

then Var chalks it off.

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Offside

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now we're coming back to that VAR call

properly in the Digital Terrace mailbag,

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because a certain someone in the Terrace

has thoughts, and I want to do it justice.

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But just sit with the

swing of it for a second.

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If that goal stands, it's 1-0

Leipzig, away at Leverkusen, and

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this is a completely, totally

different football match.

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The whole psychology flips.

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Instead, 10 minutes later, 44th

minute, right on the stroke of

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half-time, Schick pounces, and a

proper centre forward's finish it was.

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Four shots on the day, 0.78

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XG, and an XG on target of 1.27,

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which means when he hit the target, he hit

it well, better than the chances deserved.

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So we don't just go in level at the

break, which is where we'd have been.

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We go in a goal down, having

just taken one off us.

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That's a gut punch.

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That's the kind of thing that puts

a crack in a team's belief right

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before they walk down the tunnel.

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And then the second 45th

minute, Guder is again.

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Of course it's him.

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And you do not want anyone blaming

Martine Vandervoort for this

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one, because I've seen the takes.

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Fast break, left-footed finish, XG

on that specific chance of just 0.14,

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but an XG on target of 0.53.

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Same story as Schick.

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In plain terms, it was a beautifully

struck, well-placed finish into a

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corner keepers just do not reach.

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You have to take your hat off.

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That's a top goal from a top performer,

and no keeper alive saves that.

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Which brings us inevitably

to the player watch.

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Last episode, we set the duel.

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Miguel Gutierrez against Antonio Nusa.

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Now, full disclosure, these two

weren't actually marking each other.

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Gutierrez did his damage from

the left back down our right.

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Nusa was off on our left.

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So this isn't a head-to-head

tackle for tackle thing.

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It's the question Player

Watch always asks.

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Of these two, who generally

bent the game to their will?

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And I have to call it

straight down the middle.

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No spin.

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It was Gutierrez, comprehensively.

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Let me lay it out.

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8.7

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rating, man of the match, a goal and

assist, a hand in both Leverkusen goals.

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And I'll say it again

because it's remarkable.

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He did it all from left back and in

eight ground duels, 5-1, 13 carries for

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130-odd metres and you've got a two-way

performance that basically decided a

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top spiel from a defensive position.

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That's a complete,

complete afternoon's work.

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Now, here's where I'm going

to surprise you, because I am

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not here to bury Antonio Nusa.

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In fact, and check this, Nusa

was our best creator on the day.

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Full stop.

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The highest expected assist

of any LiveZ player, 0.65.

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A big chance created.

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Two key passes.

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And he beat his man on the

dribble four times out of six.

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On another afternoon, that 0.56,

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sorry, that's 0.65,

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turns into an assist.

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We're maybe drawing this game.

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And you and I are having a completely

different conversation about him.

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But this is the whole

point of Player Watch.

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The duel isn't about who

looked the liveliest.

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It's about who influenced the result.

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And on that measure, it's no contest.

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Gutierrez decides the match.

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Nusa's quality, for all its promise,

never reached the scoreboard.

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So the duel goes to Leverkusen.

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And it's not even close.

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But hold on to that silver

lining because I mean it.

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Nusa's underlying numbers were

generally and properly encouraging.

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The process was there, the end

product wasn't, and processes tend

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to turn into product eventually.

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File that away because we're

going to want it against Frankfurt

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So let me try and be balanced,

because that's what this show is for.

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Could this have been worse?

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Oh, absolutely.

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Much worse.

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Moussa Diaby missed two big

chances on his own, 0.61

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of XG.

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And on another night, a

couple of those go in.

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Schick missed one.

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Facundo Medina missed a

headed chance from a corner.

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Leverkusen generally

left a hatful out there.

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Between all of that, this

could, should, on the chances,

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have been three or four nil.

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And the reason it wasn't?

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Martine Vandervoort, a 7.3,

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the highest rated Leipzig

player on the whole pitch.

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Four saves, all from inside the box,

and a positive goals prevented figure.

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He kept the scoreline respectable.

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He's the reason we're talking

about 2-0 and not a hiding.

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And the fair to us column, because

there is one, the referee generally

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did have a rough first half.

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We'll get into the specifics in a minute.

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We lost Brazen Gruder to injury at

26 minutes, which forced a reshuffle

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we never really recovered from.

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And our best attacking moments,

Nusa's creativity and the Elanui

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effort that forced Flecken's sharper

save, those weren't the problem.

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The final ball was the problem.

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The finish was the problem.

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But when you strip it all back, the

ref, the injury, the VAR, all of it, the

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truth is uncomfortable and it is simple.

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0.85

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expected goals does not

win you a top spiel.

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It just doesn't.

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We were second best on the day and

the honest thing to do is own that

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before we look for anyone to blame.

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All right.

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That's my read.

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Now let's hear yours, because

The Terrace has been busy.

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Digital mailbag right after this

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Quick one before we carry on, and it'll

be quick because you know the drill.

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RBL Talk has no corporate

backing, none, and that is the

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entire point of this thing.

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No sponsor whispering in my ear

about being nice to somebody, no

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agenda, no gatekeepers between

me and you, just an independent

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show made by a fan for the fans.

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But independent doesn't mean free to run.

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So if you get something out of this,

if it makes your commute or your shift

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a bit better, the links to support

the show are down in the description.

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Every little bit helps cover the

costs and keeps this thing exactly

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what it is, independent and ours.

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Right, that's me done with the ask.

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Back to it.

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The Digital Terrace has spoken,

and we're taking your takes

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Two submissions this week, and like

I said up top, they could not be

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more different, and I love that.

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One's a rapier, one's a broadsheet essay.

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Let's take them in order.

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First up, this is from Shumi on X, handle

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@VECRasenballist, and it

is short, and it is sharp.

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In the original German, which has

been translated to, "I'm still

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waiting for the official VAR line."

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And Schumi, mate, you are

not alone, not even slightly.

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That's the Nkunku disallowed

goal at thirty-four minutes

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we were just talking about.

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The one that swung the whole match.

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I was watching on BeIn Sports here in

Australia on the digital terrace feed,

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and I want to be straight with you.

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I never saw the offside

line graphic, not once.

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They went to the VAR check, they

came back, goal's off, play on, no

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lines, no freeze frame, nothing.

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And from the sound of it, and

Schumi's posting in German, so I'd

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wager they were watching the German

feed, maybe even in the stadium,

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it wasn't even shown there either.

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And look, this is completely fair gripe.

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I want to be careful here.

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This is not a we were robbed job.

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I've just spent ten minutes or so

telling you we lost this game on

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chances, and I stand by every word of it.

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The offside might well have been bang on.

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Offside is offside if the

technology says so, and I'm not

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for a second claiming a conspiracy.

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But when a single decision swings

a match that hard, the difference

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between going in level and going in a

goal down at half-time, the supporters

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who live and die by this stuff

deserve to actually see the evidence.

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Show us the lines.

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Show us the frame, because just trust

us it was offside is not good enough

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for a call that of that, that magnitude.

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Not in twenty twenty-six.

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Transparency isn't a big ask.

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It's the least they can do.

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So here's a job for the terrace.

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If anyone out there saw the

official VAR line for that call

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in the BayArena on a different

broadcast anywhere, get it into us.

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Screenshot it, send it in, email

it to the show, send it to the,

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any of the social media channels,

because right now the whole thing's

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running on faith, and Schumi's

right to want a bit more than faith.

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Cracking submission, Schumi.

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Exactly the kind of

thing this segment's for

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now this next one, this is

a different beast entirely.

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This is a proper considered essay from

Kenny in the Discord, and it's a really

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good piece of writing, so I wanna do

it justice rather than just skim it

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Let me give you the thrust

of what Kenny's saying.

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Another top spill, another defeat.

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This team, he says, is

nothing if not consistent.

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He's a long-term optimist, reckons there's

more to come from this group, but the

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growing pains are hard to watch right now.

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His read on the game, the

fine margins went against us.

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A marginal offside, a terrific

opposition goal, and we go in behind

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despite dominating the first half.

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They dominate the second, and his

words, we might have kept it to

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one-nil had Martine been on his game.

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But the deeper worry, the one that's

really eating at him, is this.

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When we fall behind, we fall apart.

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There's not enough resolve,

not enough self-belief.

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From the moment Bayer scored, he says

he never once thought we'd get anything.

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And maybe, maybe the international

break comes at a good time

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for everyone to take a breath.

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Kenny, that is a brilliant,

thoughtful take, and I agree

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with most of it generally.

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But there's one line I've got to push back

on gently with the numbers in my hand,

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because that's the deal on this show.

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You said we might have kept it

to one-nil had Martín been on his

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game, and I've got to stand up for

the keeper here, Kenny, because the

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data won't let me do anything else.

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Vandevoordt finished on a seven

point three, the highest-rated

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Leipzig player on the pitch.

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Four saves, every single one of

them from inside the box, and a

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positive goals prevented figure,

plus nought point three six.

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In layman's terms, that means he stopped

slightly more than an average keeper

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would have from the shots he faced.

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He didn't cost us, he saved us.

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And Gündoğan's goal, the one that

made it two, that was an XG on

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target of nought point five three.

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A genuinely excellent finish

into a spot keepers don't get to.

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You can't pin that one on Martín.

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If anything, and I said this in the

recap, he's the reason it stayed

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two-nil instead of three-nil or four.

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The chances warranted.

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This game was not lost in goal.

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It just wasn't.

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But, and here's where you're

absolutely 100% spot on,

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Kenny, the fragility is real.

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And what's more is right there

in the data too, which is

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what makes your take so sharp.

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Fifty-six final third entries and almost

nothing of quality came from any of them.

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And look at what happened

after their goal.

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Our shot map turns into a

scattergun of low percentage

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efforts from wide and from range.

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That thing you described, falling

apart when we go behind, it shows up

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statistically as a team that kept the

ball but completely stopped threatening

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the moment it, it went a goal down.

376

:

The possession stayed, the belief drained.

377

:

You felt it, and the numbers felt it too.

378

:

So I'm right there with

you on the psychology.

379

:

Dead on.

380

:

I just move the finger off

Martín's gloves and point it at

381

:

the fine margins in both boxes.

382

:

Theirs were, they were clinical,

and ours were, we froze.

383

:

And yes, 100%, the break's well-timed.

384

:

Reset the heads, get Gruda looked at,

and come back swinging against Frankfurt.

385

:

Two smashing submissions.

386

:

Keep them coming.

387

:

SpeakPipe, Spotify comments,

the Discord, all of it.

388

:

This segment lives and dies on your

takes, and this week you delivered

389

:

Right, heads up, chins

up, let's look forward.

390

:

Frankfurt at the Red Bull Arena, half

six on the Saturday night back in

391

:

Leipzig, the marquee top spiel slot,

the big stage kickoff, which for those

392

:

of us down here in Adelaide, lands

at 3:00 in the morning on the Sunday.

393

:

So no, not civilized.

394

:

I'll be setting the alarm, getting the

kettle on, and let's do it properly.

395

:

I'll be drinking coffee

in the mug for this one.

396

:

First, let's set the mood with

the head-to-head, because this

397

:

one's got some spice to it.

398

:

Now, the top line is good for us.

399

:

We lead the recent Bundesliga

record against Frankfurt, six wins

400

:

to three, and when we beat them,

we can absolutely batter them.

401

:

Last time out, we won 3-1 away, and

before that, we put six past them.

402

:

At home, six-nil.

403

:

So there's genuine happy history here.

404

:

But, and Terrace, the older

heads among you will remember

405

:

those ones through your fingers.

406

:

Frankfurt have also stuck

four-nil on us twice.

407

:

In recent memory, two

separate four-nil hidings.

408

:

So the pattern with this fixture is

we usually win, but when Frankfurt

409

:

catch us right, it doesn't just go

wrong, it goes catastrophically wrong.

410

:

This is never, ever a quiet afternoon.

411

:

Respect them or they'll embarrass you.

412

:

The record proves it both ways.

413

:

Okay, now here's where the Sofa

Score season numbers say heading in.

414

:

And I'll be honest, I

like what I'm reading.

415

:

Start with the attack

because it's a dead heat.

416

:

Both teams have scored nine

goals in four games, identical.

417

:

Two point three a game each.

418

:

So this fixture is not going to be decided

by who's the better attacking side.

419

:

On the numbers, there's nothing in it,

which means it comes down to who defends.

420

:

And Frankfurt don't.

421

:

I'm sorry, they don't.

422

:

Ten goals conceded to our five.

423

:

That's two and a half a game

against our one point th- three.

424

:

Zero clean sheets all season, we've

got two, and it's just not the

425

:

goals, it's how they're defending.

426

:

Look at the workload numbers.

427

:

Thirty-six clearances a game, fifteen

tackles, over twelve interceptions.

428

:

Now, some people see big

defensive numbers and think solid.

429

:

It's the opposite.

430

:

Those are not the numbers

of a team in control.

431

:

Those are the numbers of a team camped

in its own box, hoofing the ball into

432

:

row Z because it's under the pump.

433

:

They defend deep, they defend

reactive, and here's the kicker, their

434

:

high line keeps getting caught out.

435

:

Over two offsides a game they're winning,

which tells you they push up and gamble

436

:

And what are we?

437

:

We're a ball-dominant winning side.

438

:

58% possession on the season.

439

:

We rack up nearly 484 accurate

passes a game at almost 88%.

440

:

We get more shots on

target than they do, 6.3

441

:

to 4.8.

442

:

And we're the tidier, more

solid defensive unit by a mile.

443

:

So you put all that together, and

on paper, this is our kind of game.

444

:

A side that will happily give us

the ball, sit off, and can be got

445

:

at if we're patient and precise.

446

:

If we play our football, we win this

447

:

But, and you knew there'd

be a but, because we don't

448

:

do complacency on this show.

449

:

We just watched for 90 minutes at

Leverkusen over the weekend exactly what

450

:

happens when we get the ball and the

territory and can't turn it into anything.

451

:

We miss 1.8

452

:

big chances a game.

453

:

That's the highest figure in this

entire matchup, higher than Frankfurt's.

454

:

So the very flaw that cost us at

the BayArena is the flaw that could

455

:

cost us here if we're wasteful.

456

:

And Frankfurt are not toothless.

457

:

Don't let the defensive mess fool you.

458

:

They create three and a half big chances

a game, Which is actually more than we do.

459

:

So they can carry a real genuine

sting on the counter if we overcommit.

460

:

If we pour bodies forward chasing

the game and leave space in

461

:

behind, they've got the players to

punish us once and nick something.

462

:

That's how those four-nils happen.

463

:

File that thought.

464

:

We'll come back to it for the prediction.

465

:

Bit of team news, and this is

a genuine doubt, so listen up.

466

:

Brazen Gruda came off injured at

26 minutes against Leverkusen.

467

:

He was pointing to his

right hip as he went down.

468

:

Now, I'm no doctor.

469

:

I'm a public transport worker who talks

about football on a podcast, so I'm not

470

:

going to sit here and diagnose it for you.

471

:

What I will say is, it's a hip concern.

472

:

We lost him early, and the

complicating factor, he's been

473

:

called up for the German national

team for this international break.

474

:

So his workload over the next

fortnight is very much one to watch.

475

:

Does he play for Germany?

476

:

Does he aggravate it?

477

:

He is, as of right now, a genuine

doubt for the international

478

:

games and for Frankfurt.

479

:

At full transparency, we may

not have a confirmed update by

480

:

the time this episode goes up.

481

:

But the Gruda update will be

posted as soon as I know in

482

:

the Digital Terrace Discord

483

:

Now this Garuda news matters for the

shape of the side because we were already

484

:

light out wide once he limped off.

485

:

Tijjani Gomes came on and gave us

energy, but not a lot of control.

486

:

So the wide areas are a question

mark going into this one

487

:

And that brings us to your player watch

duel for Frankfurt, and it's a beauty.

488

:

I'm probably going to say this

wrong, but let's have a crack anyway.

489

:

Yunes Ebnutilib, their right

winger, against David Raum,

490

:

our captain at left back.

491

:

Let me sell you on Ebnutilib,

because he's the one keeping

492

:

opposition analysts up at night.

493

:

8 million euro signing back in January,

decent money, real investment, and

494

:

he has flown out of the blocks.

495

:

Four goals and an assist

already this season.

496

:

A 9.7

497

:

masterclass against Union Berlin.

498

:

9.7.

499

:

That's a near-perfect game.

500

:

A team of the week nod, the lot.

501

:

He's normally a right winger, but his

season heat map shows him drifting

502

:

inside into the box, hunting the ball.

503

:

He is plainly the danger man.

504

:

But here's the scouting detail

that tells us how to handle him.

505

:

He's got four goals from 2.85

506

:

expected goals.

507

:

Read that carefully with me.

508

:

He is overperforming his XG,

which means one of two things.

509

:

Either he's generally an elite finisher,

or he's on a hot streak that'll cool.

510

:

Probably a bit of both.

511

:

But the underlying quality of the

chances he is getting is more modest

512

:

than the goal tally suggests, and

that tells us exactly how to stop him.

513

:

Don't let him get near set.

514

:

Don't let him drift into

the box and pick his spot.

515

:

Force him wide.

516

:

Make him shoot from range where

the XG says he shouldn't score.

517

:

Deny the entries, and the goals dry up

518

:

And that job, that specific

job, falls to David Raum.

519

:

But here's what makes this a proper

duel, not just a marking assignment.

520

:

Raum isn't only a defender.

521

:

He's our single biggest creative

outlet down that left side.

522

:

Against Leverkusen, even in a losing side,

he had four key passes and 13 crosses.

523

:

13.

524

:

So the question for our

captain is a brutal two-way.

525

:

One, can he shut down an in-form

Interloupe and still get forward

526

:

and give us our left-sided

threat going the other way?

527

:

Because if Raum wins both halves of

that battle, we win this football match.

528

:

But if Eb Nutilib pins him back, if

Raum spends 90 minutes facing his

529

:

own goal, we lose our best avenue

of attack and we're under pressure.

530

:

That's the whole game.

531

:

Distilled into one duel down our left.

532

:

Watch it.

533

:

So the prediction.

534

:

Off the data, this points one way.

535

:

We're the better-rated side.

536

:

We're more solid.

537

:

We're ball dominant.

538

:

We're at home.

539

:

And we're up against a team shipping

two and a half goals a game with not

540

:

a single clean sheet to their name.

541

:

The clean sheet, a proper professional

control the game clean sheet, is

542

:

generally on the table for us.

543

:

I can see it.

544

:

But I keep coming back to

that sting on the counter.

545

:

Because I know this team.

546

:

We like the ball.

547

:

We like to push our

fullbacks on, Raum included.

548

:

And against a side with Frankfurt's

counter-attacking threat, that's a risk.

549

:

If we overcommit, they will catch us once.

550

:

I'd put my money on them getting one.

551

:

So I'm not going to call the

clean sheet, tempting as it is.

552

:

I'm going

553

:

Leipzig two, Frankfurt one.

554

:

We will take three points.

555

:

We impose ourselves, but they nick

one on the break to keep us honest.

556

:

That's my call.

557

:

And Terrors, I would love to be

wrong about that Frankfurt goal.

558

:

Prove me wrong.

559

:

Give me the clean sheet

560

:

Right, let's bring it home.

561

:

Three things to take

away from this episode.

562

:

The headlines if you're only

going to remember three.

563

:

Takeaway one, Leverkusen didn't rob us.

564

:

They out-created us.

565

:

0.85

566

:

expected goals, one big

chance in a top spiel.

567

:

The fine margins didn't help.

568

:

The referee didn't help.

569

:

The VAR call didn't help.

570

:

But underneath all of that, we lost

this game on quality in both boxes.

571

:

Theirs was clinical.

572

:

Ours went missing.

573

:

Own it, learn from it, move on

574

:

Takeaway two.

575

:

Yes, Gutiérrez took our player

watch honors, and it wasn't close.

576

:

But Antonio Nusa's underlying creative

numbers were the best on our team

577

:

and a genuine reason for optimism.

578

:

The process is there.

579

:

Keep the faith with the young man

580

:

And takeaway three, Frankfurt at home is

a clear chance to reset the whole mood.

581

:

They leak goals, they'll give us the

ball, they can be got at, but, but we

582

:

have to actually convert this time, and

we cannot overcommit into their counter.

583

:

Do not those two things,

and we win comfortably.

584

:

Get either one wrong, and this fixture

has a nasty history of biting us.

585

:

And that leads me to what I want

from you, the Digital Terrace.

586

:

For the next episode,

two questions this week.

587

:

One, can David Raum win his duel

with Yunus Ibn Talib and still

588

:

give us our threat down the left?

589

:

And two, what's your scoreline

for Frankfurt at home?

590

:

Are you braver than me?

591

:

Are you calling the clean sheet?

592

:

You know how to reach me.

593

:

Drop a SpeakPipe, up to

five minutes of audio.

594

:

The link's in the show notes.

595

:

And honestly, the audio ones

are my favorite to play.

596

:

Leave a comment on this episode

over on Spotify, or get stuck into

597

:

the debate in the Digital Terrace

Discord, whatever's easiest.

598

:

I read and hear all of them.

599

:

And one last time, if this show means

something to you, help me keep it

600

:

independent, no corporate sponsors, no

agendas, no gatekeepers, just pure Leipzig

601

:

passion, made by one of us for all of us.

602

:

The links to support RBL Talk are down

in the show notes, and every bit of

603

:

it goes back straight into keeping

this show free and keeping it ours.

604

:

If you can't chip in, no worries at

all, then just do the free stuff.

605

:

Hit subscribe, leave us a review,

tell one other Leipzig fan about us.

606

:

That's generally how the Terrace

grows, one fan telling another.

607

:

That's your episode for 122.

608

:

Chin up, heads up.

609

:

The break's here.

610

:

We take our breath, and we go again.

611

:

Frankfurt at home.

612

:

Can't wait.

613

:

I'll see you on the Digital Terrace feed.

614

:

I've been Justin Crozer, and

until next time, bye-bye for now.

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About the Podcast

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RBL Talk — RB Leipzig Podcast (English)
The global home for RB Leipzig fans. Independent, fan-led coverage, in English.

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About your host

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Justin Crozer

Tactics. Terrace. Truth.

The Analyst from the Antipodes
I'm based in Australia, and I've spent years closing the 15,500-kilometre gap between the stands of the Red Bull Arena and the international fan community. I'm the creator and host of RBL Talk, where I pair the cold, hard data of SofaScore tactical breakdowns with the warm, unfiltered pulse of the global fanbase. I do it all around a 60-hour working week, with no corporate sponsors and no gatekeepers — just one fan who decided the international RBL community deserved a home.

More Than xG
RBL Talk was born from a genuine love of the fearless, youth-driven football that put Leipzig on the map — but I was never going to stop at verticality and expected goals. As the modern game drifts toward VAR overreach, all-seater sterility and the over-policing of the people in the stands, I've sharpened what this show is for. I'm not just here to talk about the three points on a weekend; I'm here to be a vocal advocate for the supporters who make the sport worth watching in the first place.

A Community-First Philosophy
From Digital Terrace Feed watchalongs to an active Discord home, listener takes via SpeakPipe, and my Player Watch segment, RBL Talk is built on one belief: football is nothing without its fans. It's a home for supporters who love this team but aren't afraid to demand more of it — the kind of place where a regular fan, a rival supporter and a working journalist can all end up on the same mic. I've had guests from across the Bundesliga, from clubs around the world, and from the reporters and journalists who cover the game for a living.

Roots and Reason
My feel for the game runs deeper than one club, but it stays where it belongs: on the pitch. With my own family roots reaching back to Germany, I understand how deeply football and identity are woven together over there — but RBL Talk keeps the focus on the football itself, not the agendas around it. That's the whole point.

I'm no trophy hunter, but I hold this club to a standard: competing for the Bundesliga and the Pokal every season, and going as deep as we can in Europe. Top four and a real cup run isn't a dream around here — rebuild years aside, it's the baseline. This is where data meets DNA: the most honest, analytical and fan-first coverage of RB Leipzig I can put into the world.

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